So, UT, what do you think of the Iraq big picture now?

[Undertoad]

Glad you asked! It gives me a chance to offer up my latest collection of wild ideas. Let me take off the aluminum hat for a moment here...

It's now so painfully obvious that news coverage has gotten the situation in Iraq completely wrong, that media pundits are accepting it as a given and wondering how different media are going to deal with the bias.

The media lacked a "natural narrative" in Iraq, so they reported a Baghdad murder rate lower than that of Washington DC as a terrible morass and quagmire of losing the peace. That turns out to be pretty much wrong, and now people believe it, too late for Time magazine to pull back its cover story tomorrow that repeats the morass mantra.

In the meantime, what nobody noticed was that the White House remained completely silent on these reports. Various people would report back, such as Tobiasly, to say that what they had seen was copacetic and that the US is number one on the pop charts with no bullet. Nobody listened. A few pundits went over and came back with glowing reports, such as Hitchens, and they were largely ignored.

It took a Democrat, US Rep Jim Marshall, to actually go over there and come back with the positive story with urgency, for people to sit up and take notice. What, you mean an important Democrat says it's important to understand that things are going well?

The White House could have played defense here and played up the positive stories in Iraq; they could have given the media a narrative. But it would have looked like spin no matter what -- and more importantly, they knew they were about to make a request for a large number of dollars.

In the "quagmire" narrative, that large number looks like it's needed to straighten out the mess. In reality, there is no mess and things are getting rapidly better. So why spend the money?

Two possibilities. One is that it's a huge payment to US corporations, at least some of whom got no-bid contracts. Two is that the real goal is to absolutely, positively guarantee that Iraq doesn't just recover, but is massively and immediately successful, and a massive and immediate best buddy of its brother, the U.S. of A.

So why go back to the UN? Not because the other countries' money and troops are desperately needed, but because we reclaim lost goodwill. The average Iraqi already HATES the UN anyway, and doesn't want the UN around, because they see the UN as having made the dirty deals with Saddam all along.

But in going back to the UN, we also underline to the Iraqis how the French are truly operating. The average Iraqi wants the US to stick around and their worry is that the US will leave too soon. And that is exactly the proposal that the French offered: for the US to leave as soon as possible.

I bet the Iraqis and French remain bitter enemies after this.

[russotto]

Well, the US made its share of dirty deeds with Saddam, but not so recently.

As for going to the UN, I'm wondering if it's some sort of reverse-psychology thing. As long as Bush is asking the UN for help, the French will try to hold it up. If he'd been publicly decrying the UN as irrelevant and saying the US and Britian and a few others could do it on their own, the French would be trying to get the UN in immediately.

[Torrere]

Very interesting and clever perspective. I don't believe it myself, and I still believe that the Iraqi war was an error, but (not having read the article) it's too elegant for me to want to attack it.

So I'll wait and watch.

[SteveDallas]

I've given up trying to figure out what to think.

In the worst of all possible Iraqi situations, there would still be some positive outcomes and positive stories. In the best of all possible outcomes there would still be bad things going on. People who think the media are in the back pocket of the President and his cronies (aka Right Wing Conspiracy) are ignoring a lot of very liberal folks who work in the news racket. People who think the media are just dying for Bush to fail (aka the Pinko Liberal Elite Conspiracy) are ignoring the fact that the media are mostly owned by a bunch of rabid right-wingers and that the pundit class at least (if not reporters) skew heavily right. Who am I, sitting home here in Pennsyltucky, supposed to believe? George Bush? Colin Powell? The NY Times? Instapundit.com? Salon.com? FOX news? Jacques Chirac? CNN? Matt Drudge?

Fuck it. History will decide. Why should I waste my time trying to figure out what's really going on when, as far as I can tell, NOBODY has a complete firsthand picture of the entire Iraqi situation. Especially when EVERYBODY insists that we aren't entitled to simultaneously believe that a) Saddam was a psychotic bastard who should have been taken out years ago and b) we shouldn't have taken him out by ourselves. You were either anti-war (and you now have to answer for all the atrocities of the Baathist regime) or you were pro-war (and you now have to answer for all the atrocities happening in Iraq now).

[tw]

Originally posted by Undertoad
Let me take off the aluminum hat for a moment here...

Finally UT leaks what those aluminum tubes were for. Now if we could only find all those other weapons of mass destuction - weapons that must exist because some people are just so honest.

BTW, Saddam could have all the electricity restored in one month. An MBA called George Jr couldn't get it on six months later. Guess we must be patient with Geroge Jr - even if Iraqis are angry. After all, lying comes with his title. He could not help himself. Even worse, that evil press is simply demanding too much. Honesty - and a WMD.

Better to melt down those aluminum tubes into a hat. Then others might forget about that previously promoted myth. How did we know those aluminum tubes were not for WMD? The press (and UN weapons inspectors) must have been lying to us again when they correctly challenged that silly claim using facts.

In a previous thread, prespective was defined as essential to understanding news reports. Some take perspective very seriously by ignoring reams of news reports as biased. Then find the few reports that appear to support a personal bias. But then that is why some still claim those alumunim tubes were for WMD. Perspective.

[Torrere]

BTW, Saddam could have all the electricity restored in one month. An MBA called George Jr couldn't get it on six months later.

Pffffttt.


Saddam never finished repairing damage to the electrical system from the 1991 Gulf War.

According to a Pentagon strategist interviewed, post-Gulf War:
"Saddam Hussein cannot restore his own electricity. He needs help. The U.N. coalition can say, 'Saddam, when you agree to do these things, we will allow people to come in and fix your electricity.' It gives us long-term leverage."
source

[warch]

What, you mean an important Democrat says it's important to understand that things are going well?

Well...careful, the ball is in play...the article says he's a freshman Democrat congressman, Vietnam vet, who barely won his seat by a slim 1%, in conservative Georgia, was invited by the White House to fly over to Iraq, then swiftly made high profile rounds of all the major media outlets. I'm sure from a crass political elbowrubbing stance, it was a great opportunity for him, as well as for the White House. I'm cynical. I still dont know who I can trust, but I certainly do hope its going well.

[xoxoxoBruce]

BTW, Saddam could have all the electricity restored in one month. An MBA called George Jr couldn't get it on six months later.

This is true but doesn't tell the whole story. Saddam only supplied electricity to certain areas and friends. He did this with a mish mosh of systems that were incompatable with each other and could not be interconnected. We could have had what he supplied back up in a month but we're changeing the whole network to supply everyone with an equal share.

[xoxoxoBruce]

UT, do you spend the whole movie trying to guess how it will end?

[Undertoad]

What can I tell ya guy! I just really enjoy watching the events play out these days, whether they go how I think they will or not, whether they go ways that I think will be good or not. It's like watching a sporting event proceed at a snail's pace. Except that the outcome is not meaningless - it's creating history and determining the future of the human race.

[Undertoad]

USS Clueless points to this article in which Iraqi exiles return to their birth country and report back on what they find.

Are the Iraqis going to find their way to Democracy, or are people in that area of the world simply incapable of it?

The IPO people went to Iraq with clear goals. First, they wanted to establish debating societies and newsletters in the Baghdad universities. "These are going to be the seeds of democracy," Yasser explains. "Once you learn to argue against people instead of killing them as Saddam did, you're on your way. We explained to the university students that they could have different newspapers - and even have different opinions in the same newspapers - and it seemed totally surreal to them. They just couldn't understand it. But when they realised that it really was possible and nobody was going to punish them, they were so excited that they were just obsessed.

"They were in the middle of their exams and supposed to be studying, but they insisted on writing and photocopying a newsletter that they distributed everywhere. They wrote articles on amazing things they could find out about on the internet - philosophy and art and the difference between proportional representation and first-past-the-post! It was the best thing in my life, seeing that," Yasser says.

The best thing reading it, too. Democracy was second nature for Americans, because an independent spirit is practically part of our DNA. The ex-Monarchies of Europe found their way to Democracy. The fascists found their way. The religious warriors of Japan found their way. It seems the Persian/Arab sort can do it too. This is wonderful reason for hope.

The article says maybe it isn't foriegn terrorists making all the trouble, and points out what the coalition did wrong:

Despite his vigorous support for the war, Yasser has no doubt that the occupying coalition made one massive error when they took charge. "They didn't round up all the former members of Saddam's security services, and we're paying the price now," he explains. "My aunt lives in a slum in north-west Baghdad, and on 9 April [the day Saddam's statue was toppled] everyone in the security services disappeared. They all ran away because they knew they would be killed by Iraqis or captured by the Americans. But after two months, they began to trickle back. The man who lives opposite my aunt was part of Saddam's secret police, and he's reappeared and he's just carrying on as if nothing happened. He terrifies everyone just by walking up the street."

Then he verifies (big time!) my theory that the Iraqis will hate the French and all anti-war nations:

There is a terrible fear among many Iraqis that they will not be able to match the Kurds' achievement if they are abandoned by the Americans once again. "The memories of 1991 are so vivid," says Sama. "People still fear that somehow the Americans will abandon us and Saddam will claw his way back from the grave. They say, `It happened in 1991, it could happen again.' That's one crucial reason why people are reluctant to cooperate with the coalition." She adds: "I find it absolutely incredible that the anti-war people are now calling for the coalition to leave straight away. Nobody in Iraq wants that. The opinion polls show it's just 13 per cent. Don't they care about the Iraqi people and what they want at all? This isn't a game. This isn't about poking a stick at George Bush. This is our lives."

And oh yeh, tw, for balance, I would be glad to read any articles from expat Iraqis who say things are going poorly. I just can't find any, can you?

Too long to read. Please summarize.

[tw]

Two weeks ago on 'This Week', an administration representative of the White House would claim how everything was going so well in Iraq. Also in the discussion was a lady from an NGO. She kept accusing this administration man of not walking the streets, hiding behind security, and not even speaking to Iraqis. He could not deny any of this so he kept ducking her repeated accusations. She was blunt and repeatitive which made it obvious he could not deny those accusations. Then she noted how many times she went into those street and lived with those people. And how unhappy those people are.

Polls show they expect things to get better. Polls also show they want the Americans out so they can get things fixed. Aftger all, when did tank drivers become experts on providing electricity?

Then there is one more fact that goes little reported. It is called, "One Man, One Vote, One Time". The great fear of democracy is that democracy leads too often to an extremist taking power and becoming a dictator. "... One Time". This is what Iraqis fear and expect will probably happen.

And since Americans could not get electricity working in one month, then Iraqis have no belief that American can make a working government.

At least Saddam could provide electricity. Where Saddam provided electricity in only one month, the US still has not provided electricity six month later. Iraqis see this. Iraqi 'little people' don't believe the US will fix anything else. It is why so many Iraqis are easily recruited into attacking the oil pipelines. They still don't have elecricity but are giving their oil to the US.

Retired US Generals are again joining the chorus of those contradicting the George Jr administration. Tonight on PBS Newshour is Gen Zinni who says quite bluntly, "We are stuck". He then says he hopes we can find a way to get out of Iraq. He also says, as so many others, that we need more people in Iraq. And we need the Bremmer team to get out of Baghdad; into provincal capitals where the leadership is really needed.

Like a good MBA, this George Jr administration will solve all problem from Baghdad - centralize bureacracy. We have a serious management problem in Iraq. Not the least of it was exposed by that lady from an NGO who many it bluntly obvious - this administration's people will not even go into Baghdad streets to find out what people are really saying. No wonder they think things are going so well. These are the same people who said Saddam has WMD. At what point do we finally say, "They lie"?

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally posted by dave
Too long to read. Please summarize.

C'mon ,Dave. Would you want your chick to say "are you done yet"? He's obviously got a woody here.

[elSicomoro]

That, or a swollen head.