Global warming?

[BigV]

Hey. I'm bumping it, not beating it.

[BigV]

Originally Posted by Coign

The problem is the computer models cannot prove or disprove climate change is man-made. And it is not even that they need to prove if it is happening or not, it it proving that carbon dioxide, the stuff that makes plants grow, is the cause of it.

Until we know it is happening, and more importantly know what it is causing it, anything we do to slow/halt/reverse it is just an unnecessary tax/control against an economy that does not have the money to spend.

What do you consider "proof"? I believe it is imperative to agree on an answer to this question before any kind of understanding can be shared on the actual facts. Until then, you cite your legitimate sources, I cite mine, and we continue to talk past each other.

The second sentence there, fingering CO2 is an example of getting ahead of ourselves. I think we can agree that with a system as complex as the earth one source, CO2, is unlikely to be the cause of such a widespread effect. There are many factors that influence climate change.

As for your second paragraph, now now, if we "don't know what is happening or causing it" how can you "know" a given effort is unnecessary? It might be necessary, it might be helpful, you yourself just proposed that you don't know.

[Coign]

My point is we are doing damage to our economy, our rights, and social structure in the attempt to fix something that most likely doesn't even need fixing.

It is the equivalent of Dark Age medicine. We know a fraction of what we need to, yet we are bleeding ourselves out in hopes that it will cure us.

My offered solution, is quit trying to fix it until you know what it is you are trying to fix. You are causing way more damage than you are pretending to solve.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Coign

My point is we are doing damage to our economy, our rights, and social structure in the attempt to fix something that most likely doesn't even need fixing.

The Dark Ages is when you deny well proven science only because political types - no different than wizards - tell you how to think. We know global warming exists, that it has long term negative consequences, and is caused by mankind. That is not even disputed (where logical people learn from numbers - not from Limbaugh hearsay). Remaining questions are the details. More specifically in better defining the numbers.

If you think a problem does not exist even though numbers say so decisively, then it is 100% on you to prove why well prove why research, facts, and numbers are wrong. Show me without subjective posts that only insult any honest person. Ironically the same people who 'knew' Saddam had WMDs also used same subjective lies. If you know what science does not, then where are your numbers?

Nations that addressed environmental problems first were then wealthier selling that technology to other naysayers. Or do we forget economic lessons from the 1960s? Nations who ignore global warming will eventually have to purchase that technology from the more intelligent innovators. Not just to solve global warming. But to also solve other problems directly traceable to the same obsolete technologies.

[Fair&Balanced]

Originally Posted by Coign

My point is we are doing damage to our economy, our rights, and social structure in the attempt to fix something that most likely doesn't even need fixing.

What damage to the economy? The long term damage to the economy will be a result of the US falling behind China, India etc in developing clean energy technologies.

What rights have been damaged? The right to keep using incandescent light bulbs after 2014? The long term damage, at least to some degree, is the adverse health impacts for many as a result of the increasing levels of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

What damage to the social structure?

[tw]

From The Economist of 24 Jan 2011 entitled "Climate change and evolution":

By itself, as we always say, one hot year doesn't prove anything. The fact that every one of the twelve hottest years on record has come since 1997 is a little harder to wave away. 2010 was also the wettest year ever, corresponding to the expectation that higher heat means more water vapour. More countries set national high-temperature records in 2010 than ever before, including the biggest one, Russia. Arctic sea ice in December was at its lowest level ever, temperatures across a broad swathe of northern Canada have been 20 C higher than normal for the past month, the record temperatures are coming despite the lowest levels of solar activity in a century and a La Nina effect that should be making Canada colder rather than warmer, and so on. It is of course possible that global warming plateaued this year; it's also possible that it plateaued this morning. One can always hope! For now, though, this is the basic shape of things:

The George Will "global warming has ended" moment shows up as that little dip towards the end, before it returns to trend. So, what effect will the new data have on that meme? Quite possibly none. People who tried to cast doubt on global warming in 2009 based on a few years one could isolate so that they didn't show a discernible trend will now no doubt respond that a couple of very hot years don't prove anything. Which underlines how often the conclusions one draws from data are determined by a combination of the hypotheses you're framing, and at what point you start looking.

So naysayer pretend this is not happening? Those ostriches continue by simply denying and ignoring.

Blogs (not science) dispute facts. Subjective reasoning replaces quantitative facts and reality?

Expecting science to subvert climate change advocates, a Republican Congress sought immediate testimony from Dr Muller. Only to learn what their political agenda is again contradicted by science.

From The Economist of 31 Mar 2010 entitled "A record-making effort":

Various criticisms of the methodology and probity of the temperature records have been made, though much more often in the blogosphere than in the scientific literature. Erring on the side of extra caution is not a bad idea, and various efforts are underway to develop, corroborate and better to underpin the work on temperature records that has been done to date. One such effort is the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature programme, which Dr Muller heads. ...

Rather than look at carefully (and similarly) selected subsets of the data it would look at everything available, just as astrophysicists frequently seek to survey the whole sky. Rather than using the judgement of climate scientists to make sense of the data records and what needed to be done to them, it would use well designed computer algorithms. Put together under the aegis of Novim, a non-profit group that runs environmental studies, the team gathered up a bit over half a million dollars - including $100,000 from a fund set up by Bill Gates and $150,000 from the Koch foundation, whose animosity towards action on climate change made the Berkeley project look yet more suspicious to some climate-change activists - and got to work. ...

The results look very like what the other three teams have seen. ... The earth has warmed by about 0.7 C since 1957, just as the other teams claimed. Adjustments made to the data on a site-by-site basis which have had some suspicious sceptics hopping mad seem to have made no appreciable difference. ...


Dr Muller also, more controversially, reported on results that pertain to a specific point made by climate sceptics; that the temperature record is contaminated because many of the stations used to compile it are in inappropriately located. This idea is particularly associated with Anthony Watts, a former television weatherman who runs an extremely popular website catering largely to a climate-sceptic crowd. Mr Watts has led an impressive crowdsourcing movement devoted to checking out the meteorological stations that generate climate data in America. This has found that a really surprising number of the instruments concerned are not sited in the way that they should be, being inappropriately close to buildings, tarmac and other things that could cause problems. ...

The Berkeley team compared the data from the American sites Mr Watts thought were worst situated and the sites he thought best. It found no statistically significant difference in the trends measured in the two different categories, though the warming trend in the better sites is slightly stronger.

This analysis echoes one carried out last year by scientists at NOAA, which when looking at a subset of Mr Watts's data found much the same thing. The Berkeley team's result, though, is perhaps more striking, in that Mr Watts had made all his data available to Mr Muller and his colleagues, a step he seems now rather to regret.

Impressed by the Berkeley set up, Mr Watts wrote in a post published March 6th:

Results did not agree with his political agenda. So now Mr Watts is attacking the study. Of course. The science only makes sense when it agrees with a political agenda. The same political agenda that can only deny numbers and provide none.

The Berkeley work, especially after it is published and disseminated in full, may increase the acceptance of the reality of global warming among people who have so far managed to maintain a comforting and sometimes self-serving feeling that maybe the people who deny that anything is going on are actually right. It doesn't in itself show how much of the warming is due to human activity. Dr Muller, in a somewhat cavalier way, chose to suggest that about half of what had been seen since 1900 was. Other scientists would put the proportion higher.

So where is science that disproves it. Yes, the same naysayers will post the same subjective denials. Subjective reasoning also said Saddam had WMDs. No way around facts with numbers. Global warming does exist. It is created (fully or in part) by man. With adverse planetary effects.

How much? How fast? How severe? Only those are controversial. Involves numbers. Numbers also proved Saddam WMD claims were mythical. Numbers also define global warming. Numbers are always missing in posts that deny only for a political agenda.

A political agenda said Muller would expose data discrepancies. Those discrepancies cites by a political agenda do not exist when numbers are provided. Only exist in subjective (also called low intelligence) reasoning. Same reasoning massacred 4,500 Americans soldiers (more numbers) in Iraq for no useful purpose. All praise extremism for rationalizing subjectively to advance mankind.

Honest posters, Coign, post with numeric facts.

[Coign]

Originally Posted by tw

Honest posters, Coign, post with numeric facts.

http://www.populartechnology.net/200...upporting.html

[Coign]

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced

What damage to the economy? The long term damage to the economy will be a result of the US falling behind China, India etc in developing clean energy technologies.

50 billion dollars spent in America is damage to the economy.

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced

What rights have been damaged? The right to keep using incandescent light bulbs after 2014? The long term damage, at least to some degree, is the adverse health impacts for many as a result of the increasing levels of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

So instead of a 100 watt incandescent bulb you prefer the mercury in florescent bulbs?

And the pusher for this law was/is GE. Because I am sure they are only thinking about energy conservation and not the money they will reap by forcing you to buy their product.

And on that train of thought, it is unconstitutional for our government to tell us what we can or cannot buy if the item is "legal". (This brings up thoughts of healthcare but I will not get into that here.)

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced

What damage to the social structure?

To answer this, see above. Out government should NOT be spending money on faulty science forcing me to buy products that they have investments in, and fining and imprisoning those who do not follow their laws. If you can declare "light bulbs" illegal, were does it stop? Let me repeat that, DECLARING PERFECTLY SAFE LIGHT BULBS ILLEGAL, that is a destruction of rights.

Why do people not see this? Wake up. You give the government more power over your life each time you say, "well they are just light bulbs, that isn't so bad." Next it will be gas, then traveling itself, maybe they should determine how much power our house can draw. I'm sorry, you can't have that extra TV because that will take you over your allotted power usage for your home.

THIS IS BULLSHIT AND NEEDS TO STOP NOW!!!!!

Do not give them a hair more power. We must fight them and their control over what we choose to buy, consume, or live our life.

Here are some quick links you really need to at least open and read the headlines.

http://climategate.tv/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/

http://infowars.net/articles/august2...807Warming.htm

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles...290607ipcc.htm

http://www.dailytech.com/Survey%2BLe...rticle8641.htm

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Coign

Why do people not see this? Wake up. You give the government more power over your life each time you say, "well they are just light bulbs, that isn't so bad." Next it will be gas, then traveling itself, maybe they should determine how much power our house can draw. I'm sorry, you can't have that extra TV because that will take you over your allotted power usage for your home.

Sorry. I must have been unconscious for a bit after falling down that slippery slope.

[Coign]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

Sorry. I must have been unconscious for a bit after falling down that slippery slope.

You don't think this is happening? Requirement for fuel efficient cars? TSA? Wall Street bailouts? Pushing for a welfare state? Warrantless search and seizure? Warrantless wire taps? Warrantless entry into homes? Entering your home for absolutly NO REASON WHAT SO EVER?

This is happening RIGHT NOW. This is not a slope, this is here right now and getting worse every year. I am afraid of the slippery fall off the cliff.

http://www.truthout.org/indiana-supr...hts/1305811094

http://www.infowars.com/financial-te...ights-hostage/

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/nsa.../legality.html

http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/regulations.htm

[Happy Monkey]

We don't have what you would accept as proof, and therefore it "most likely doesn't even need fixing"?

The vast majority of climate scientists are in agreement. That's as close to proof as science gets. If you wait until 100% of scientists agree before you take action, you never will.

And even if 100% of scientists agree, in will come people saying "science has been wrong before, so they're probably wrong now!"

[Undertoad]

We have already had this discussion in this thread HM. And apparently you failed to learn from took nothing from decided to ignore my post about how your notion of science is incorrect, so I won't repeat it.

i'll just link to it :P

[Happy Monkey]

I looked back at the thread and discovered that I didn't ignore your post, and actually did respond to it.

Sure, consensus isn't a guarantee. Sure, the scientific community can be wrong. But it's the best thing we have available.

[piercehawkeye45]

Two recent articles in Newsweek discussing how we have not attempted to adapt to climate change and how we are underestimating our ability to innovate.

http://www.newsweek.com/2011/05/29/a...-for-more.html

http://www.newsweek.com/2011/06/12/b...he-planet.html

[classicman]

I've read her stuff... She's been spouting that same story for years.

Originally Posted by Undertoad

If a post on GW is contains either the words "denier" or "warmist" it is really talking about people and not science. At that point it is just game-playing and can be ignored.

Naysayer probably fits as well as "denier" or "warmist"