Er' She Blows

[tw]

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey
Irene Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe
Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
are tropical storms for this year.

Arlene already happened in late June. Made landfall in southern TX and Northern Mexico where rain was welcome due to drought.

A second tropical depression just formed north of Bermuda. And not expected to be serious. More interesting is the difference from last year. So far storm tracks have been more northerly. Last year, all storms remained south.

Unusually warm air during the spring resulted in a most violent tornado season. But the Gulf and Caribbean have not been unusually warm. Only about 28 degrees. Meaning that any early season hurricanes are unlikely to be violent.

Predictions are for 16 names storms. 9 to become hurricanes. 5 to be severe. And a 72% chance of at least one category 3 or higher hurricane striking the US mainland. This is traditionally only 52%. Predictions from the past few years have been extraordinarily accurate.

The eastern Pacific already had an above normal two hurricanes in June. One was a category four. As usual, it headed for San Diego only to peter out off Baja.