HN51 aware?

[xoxoxoBruce]

That could just be feathers up his nose.

[slang]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

That could just be feathers up his nose.

[Tyler Durden voice] Sticking feathers up your butt does not mean you have bird flu [/Tyler Durden voice]

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[richlevy]

I'm pretty close to ordering 4 N100 filter masks just in case. Otherwise, if there were an outbreak, it could be weeks before anything beyond those cheap disposables would be available.

[busterb]

Originally Posted by richlevy

I'm pretty close to ordering 4 N100 filter masks just in case. Otherwise, if there were an outbreak, it could be weeks before anything beyond those cheap disposables would be available.

I'm thinking about getting home delivery for beer

[tw]

It is a good thing that governments are taking care to prepare for a possible threat. But then we have to put that threat into perspective. Previous versions of the disease that did pass into to humans were the types H1, H2, and H3. They caused humans to get sick in 1918, 1957, and 1968. What was the solution? Better health practices. Wash hands. Wash down things that people touch. When the epidemic was so catastrophic, people also did not practice these essential cleaning practices.

So where will the disease be a greater problem. Obviously among those who daily work with birds. But also where good health practices are not exercised. The H5 type could be a problem. But moreso, it will show us where we are not down our jobs to stay clean and healthy. That this virus would be any more disastrous than others is mostly about getting people to practice normal precautions.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by tw

That this virus would be any more disastrous than others is mostly about getting people to practice normal precautions.

I've been wondering about this, myself, and I've noted that no media coverage has discussed the sanitation differences between 1918 and today.

An interesting tidbit I gathered from the PBS documentary on the 1918 flu: the reason the most affected people were healthy, young adults was not because the virus somehow targeted these people, but because it was most likely that the elderly had developed a resistance to that strain of flu thanks to an outbreak of a similar flu several decades earlier.

[glatt]

A common thread in these calming replies is that we all just need to wash our hands and we will be fine. That's obviously good advice, but if it's airborne, washing hands won't be enough. Especially if you find yourself out in public.

I ride the Metro to work every day. I'm stuck in a large tin can with about 50-100 strangers for about 15 minutes each morning and evening. I would either need to stay home, wear an N95 mask, or ride my bike to work. I already have a box of 20 masks, which will get me through about one month. I probably need another two boxes to be safe. When I get to work, I'm in a building with about 750 people. The hallways aren't mobbed or anything, but the possibility of running into an infected person would be real. So do I leave my mask on all day long? I guess so. It would suck.

The other options? Staying home is probably crazy, but that's where the food horde would come in handy. Riding my bike would mean tuning up my old Schwinn Varsity and taking my life into my hands. Plus, I'd still need a mask at work.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by glatt

The other options? Staying home is probably crazy, but that's where the food horde would come in handy. Riding my bike would mean tuning up my old Schwinn Varsity and taking my life into my hands. Plus, I'd still need a mask at work.

The 1918 flu took 18 months to run its cycle. Staying home that long is not only an unpleasant experience, I'm also not sure that it is really possible.

Some really impressive figures on the 1918 H1 strain:

Global mortality rate from the flu was estimated at 2.5%–5% of the human population, and 20% of world population suffering from the disease to some extent. It spread across the world killing 25 million during six months; some estimates put the total killed at over twice that number, possibly even 100 million.

An estimated 17 million died in India, about 5% of India's population at the time. In the Indian Army, almost 22% of troops who caught the disease died of it. In US, about 28% of the population suffered, and 500,000 to 675,000 died. In Britain 200,000 died; in France more than 400,000. The death rate was especially high for indigenous peoples; entire villages perished in Alaska and southern Africa. In the Fiji Islands, 14% of population died during only two weeks, and in Western Samoa 22%. In Japan, 257,363 deaths were attributed to influenza by July 1919, giving an estimated 0.425% mortality rate, much lower than nearly all other Asian countries for which data are available.

The Spanish Flu may have killed 25 million people only in the first 25 weeks beginning in September 1918, while AIDS killed as many in its first 25 years.

Many cities, states, and countries enforced restrictions on public gatherings and travel to try to stop the pandemic. In many places theaters, dance halls, churches and other public gathering places were closed for over a year. Quarantines were enforced with little success. Some communities placed armed guards at the borders and turned back or quarantined any travellers. One U.S. town even outlawed shaking hands.

Even in areas where mortality was low, those incapacitated by the illness were often so many as to bring much of everyday life to a stop. Some communities closed all stores or required customers not to enter the store but place their orders outside the store for filling. There were many reports of places with no health care workers to tend the sick because of their own ill health and no able bodied grave diggers to inter the dead.

But, hey, let's keep this happy. H5N1 has been around for more than ten years and we still haven't seen a shift to humans or swine, yet. It may never happen. H5N2 came and went in 1983 and forced the US to kill millions of poultry in farms, but few people took notice.

[tw]

Originally Posted by tw

... put that threat into perspective. Previous versions of the disease that did pass into to humans were the types H1, H2, and H3. They caused humans to get sick in 1918, 1957, and 1968. ... So where will the disease be a greater problem.

So many people did not die in 1957 and 1968 because we hyped the end of the world? No. So why do we hype Armageddon today? Maybe because English majors posing as reporters cannot put science into perspective? Or maybe because religious extremists look forward to a second coming of Christ?

H5N1 is an interesting story of something that the medical profession must watch and make preparations for. How serious is it? We have previous data - 1957 and 1968. It is not the disease that we should worry about. Again return to lessons from history. After being told the levees would be breached and with a hurricane bearing down on New Orleans; what did this president do? He went to California for a campaign fund raiser. With the USS Bataan sitting off New Orleans waiting to rescue Americans, then how long did it take this leader to make a decision? Five days the Bataan waited for a presidential decision. Five days for a president to decide people needed rescue. Therein lies any threat from H5N1. Don't let the hype fool you. History says danger *lies* from where 85% of all problems are created - and where PDBs warning of 11 September don't even get read.

With responsible leadership and a medical community that has already studied and prepared for H5N1, then risk should not be significant. But planning requires assistance from responsible leadership. What do we call a ship without a rudder? Well, hell - this one does not even have a sane captain. Who cares about a missing rudder? The threat is a captain who invents enemies where they don’t exist and who cannot even acknowledge reality - that levees will be breached. This is a leader who will respond to an H5N1 threat? Only if god tells him to. After all, does the president even know the difference between a virus and bateria? History says probably no. And since we are all heathens, therein *lies* the real threat from H5N1.

Not for one minute am I facetious. There is only one reason to worry about H5N1. From history, the disease should be trivial. But then we have this leadership with history that says, “Worry not about the disease”. Worry about why failure happens - and those who would vote for such people. These are the same people who say only god can decide whether you have children and when you can die. Worry about the real reason why H5N1 could be a problem.

H5N1 becomes a problem if two things happen: The virus mutates to the point where it can easily replicate in a human host, and the virus mutates to the point where it can be transmitted via the air. Right now, the humans who have contracted the disease have practically had to beg on bended knee for the virus to come on over for a visit. They've had to ingest raw poultry, muck around with feces and intestines, and french kiss mallards. Once they've finally contracted the disease, they've had to do much the same sorts of things with their own bodily fluids to convince the pathogen to take on a second human host, At this point, the virus says, "No more humans for me, give me a nice, tasty coot!

Certainly, the virus, being a virus, could change its modus operandi. Scientific and health organizations world wide are monitoring the critter to see what it decides to do. If you think Bush is forcing scientists at the CDC to fake their data, you can alawys check out the WHO website, or the Brits or Scandanaviams. The Swiss would probably be safest of all, and every global group is so far in agreement with the CDC, as far as I can tell.

Avian flu may or may not turn out to be a problem. There are also a zillion to the Nth degree pathogens out there in the big wide world, one of which, may actually one day become responsible for the next pandemic. After all, who would have ever imagined that a few monkeys in Africa and a French gay airline steward would be responsible for all the suffering and deaths of the AIDS epidemic?

Lets say for the sake of argument that bird flu did mutate and was 50% lethal. Flu does not have that long an incubation period. The epicenter of the new strain is, lets say, Istanbul. For two days international travelers fly out of Istanbul, then the grim reaper hits. Passengers from those flights are quarantined at once. Anyone who has come into contact with those passengers is quarantined, also.

This is where Bushco's government comes into play. Modern communication techniques, adequate numbers of hospital beds, public awareness - could all limit the damage done by any possible out-break. Will our leadership act decisively in the event of such an occurence? Good question. Katrina and 9/11 do not exactly inspire me with confidence.

[wolf]

Originally Posted by marichiko

After all, who would have ever imagined that a few monkeys in Africa and a French gay airline steward would be responsible for all the suffering and deaths of the AIDS epidemic?

Much as I love blaming the French for anything, Gaetan Dugas, widely identified as "Patient Zero" was French Canadian.

The French end up being as close to good guys as you can get in the AIDS story, being the first to successfully isolate and identify the virus.

Ebola is probably higher risk than H5N1, unless the Avian flu gets better at crossing the species barrier. That eola shit is really a lot scarier, even given that the infectious process tends to burn itself out rather quickly once it's identified and infection control procedures are followed to the letter. At least Ebola isn't airborne.