12/26/2002: Korean peninsula

[tw]

Originally posted by Undertoad
[b]January 2002: President George W. Bush says North Korea, Iran and Iraq form an "axis of evil" threatening the world with weapons of mass destruction. ...
October 3-5, 2002: James Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, confronts Pyongyang with U.S. evidence of a covert uranium enrichment programme. North Korea responds by saying it is "entitled to possess not only nuclear weapons but other types of weapons more powerful than them in defense of its sovereignty in face of the U.S. threat." ...
November 14, 2002: The United States and its allies hold a KEDO meeting in New York and decide to cut off fuel oil shipments to North Korea, beginning in December. ...

And so events spiraled into potential confrontation. Korea is more dangerous than anything in Iraq. But what is the purpose of war? To put a dispute back on the negotiation table. If there are no talks, then war is a commonly used alternative to force discussion back to the table. Diplomatic discussion is never terminated - except when one wants war.

Therefore in the middle of November, only the US demanded that all further oil shipments be suspended to N Korea AND that all diplomatic channels be completely severed. All discussions terminated - both actions taken against objections of Japan and S Korea. A country that wishes to avoid war does not terminate all discussion. But George Jr personally ordered it. I can just imagine Colin Powell bristling - knowing full well that such an order could only create problems. It did.

Therein lies the reason for a long, drawn out, well publicized termination of Clinton's 1994 negotiated settlement. Having bluntly terminated all negotiation, George Jr forced N Korean moderates into an alliance with N Korean hard liners. Having terminated all discussions with N Korea, then even the moderates in N Korea had no alternative but to agree with N Korean extremists - to access those nuclear rods and restart the electric power plant.

Day after his Sunday morning talk shows, Colin Powell made a key statement. He said the US would "talk but not negotiate". That statement was in direct contradiction to George Jr's original orders. Later that week, George Jr also said the US would talk with N Korea. Breakthrough? I hope so.

Maybe the disagreement has stopped spiraling out of control. Clearly damage has been done to 'engage' N Korea into a world community. Engagement is the policy adovcated by Japan and openly touted by S Korea's Sunshine program. A question remains. Can engagement be restarted so that N Korean extremists don't get a plutonium bomb?

N Korea is not a monolithic dictatorship much as Gorbechev's first years were not a monolithic USSR. The N Korea famine only made it obvious to some N Koreans that hard liners policy was no longer acceptable. Important that the US tread carefully here so as to empower N Korean moderates. However we have undermined those moderates to the advantage of extremists - because we rattled sabers rather than use the conference table. We only proved that N Korean extremist are right - that we intend to invade and conquer N Korea.

N Korean hard liners typically have almost no knowlege of the world. Most are convinced that the US intents to attack N Korea at the first sign of weakness. These extremist hold extensive power. Moderates can only gain power if engagement with the outside world is productive. Both Japan and S Korea did not - repeat - did not want to terminate oil shipments to N Korea. Both believe that engagement is the only way to keep N Korea from becoming a military threat.

N Korea is a very dangerous situation IF not handled with full knowledge of power competition inside the N Korean government. To avoid war, those N Korean moderates must be empowered - by always maintaining diplomatic communication. The current plutonium dispute demonstrates that terminating discussion can only result in things worse.

George Jr should have responded negatively to those revelations that N Korea had a uranium program. However NEVER terminate diplomatic discussion - except if you want war. George Jr did the worst thing possible. Fortunately N Korea has not yet attempted to build a plutonium bomb AND demonstrated their intent not to do so - but only for now.