Iraq and Turkey See Tensions Rise After Ambush

[ZenGum]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

This is happening a looooong way from the green zone.

LOL! True, but still, there must be a few roving reporters out there, especially in Kirkuk and such.
Anyway the latest reports now confirm that Turkey is up to stuff (bombing) inside Iraq, with more almost certain to follow, and probably ground troops too.

TW, I think it is more significant than you allow, in two ways.
Firstly, it deals considerable damage to the prestige of the central Iraqi government, emphasizing that not only can they not control the Kurds within their borders, they cannot prevent foreign nations from encroaching over their borders.
Ok, I preemptively agree that the prestige of the central Iraqi government is already deathly low, when it comes to being able to control internal affairs. But when it comes to maintaining its borders, so far it has kept up appearances of being able to do that. This appearance is now being damaged.
This matters because it will affect international perceptions of Iraq as a viable country. I'm not arguing (here) whether Iraq is or isn't a viable country, just talking about the affect on international perceptions. For example, it makes it harder for the White House to insist that every thing is going well and troop reductions will soon be possible, when the north has become so disordered that Turkey had to invade to sort things out.
The second point is that it sets a precedent for an increased level of meddling in Iraq by regional powers - Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, as well as Turkey. This will destabilize the country and make the eventual US departure harder and further away (or else much quicker and more awkward).
While I agree that none of this is particularly surprising, I still think it is important development.

I have seen a funnier side to this: imagine a US diplomat trying to explain to Turkey why they shouldn't invade:
Turkey: That country is a safe haven for terrorists who are using it as a base to attack us! We must invade!
US: Ummmmmmmmmmmm .......
Kind of hard for the US to counter that argument.

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by ZenGum

Turkey: That country is a safe haven for terrorists who are using it as a base to attack us! We must invade!
US: Ummmmmmmmmmmm .......
Kind of hard for the US to counter that argument.

"Do as I say, not as I do."

[tw]

Originally Posted by ZenGum

TW, I think it is more significant than you allow, in two ways.
Firstly, it deals considerable damage to the prestige of the central Iraqi government, emphasizing that not only can they not control the Kurds within their borders, they cannot prevent foreign nations from encroaching over their borders. ...
The second point is that it sets a precedent for an increased level of meddling in Iraq by regional powers - Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, as well as Turkey.

I do not disagree with those trends (and resulting stress). But the significance and 'status quo created reality' denials are only bad for Iraqis and the region in the long term. Those 'stresses' could only force Baghdad's 'powers that be' to acknowledge reality.

First, whereas a Turk invasion could be a stress on Iraq's government, the need to admit realities may just as easily be good.

Second, is this mythical idea that if we protect a puppet government, then it will get better. Reality is that the Iraqi people must come to a decision on their own - either negotiate or learn from overt civil war. America cannot impose or teach either. Hard realities (such as overt civil war) make solutions permanent (the people remember bad consequences). Any stress on Iraq's government created by a Turk invasion is stress that might force acknowledgement of both points. Denial in Baghdad is that massive. Missing is an honest and indisputable acknowledgement of reality created by the current American 'solution' - a sort of "don't worry; be happy" attitude.

Third, I don't believe any such stress will be significant. The current government is too busy playing political power games. Nothing that happens in Northern Iraq will have any relevance in Baghdad. Positioning for domestic power is the number one agenda. Turkey could do as Israel did in Lebanon; it would have near zero affect in Baghdad.

Other than Washington public statements, an invasion would have little consequences there either. Washington may even spin it into "Turkey has joined the coalition to liberate Iraq from the evil axis of evil empire".

When applying a weighted average to facts, a Turk invasion of PKK strongholds would be more of a deja vue event. Double redundant? Sorta the point due to so many facts either over emphasized or hyped into lies by political agendas.

Turkey should invade because no one wants to stop it, because the consequences are trivial, because smaller operations have always been ongoing, and because Turkey has been so significantly harmed. Even the few news reports are more due to insignificance of the event.