Google stock up

[Beestie]

My concern about buying into the stock parallels jags point. No product, but a method. It could last for a long time - they are an impressive bunch over there. But, then again, so was the Netscape gang. There won't be much loyalty when someone demonstrates that they can do the same thing better or easier.

Ebay, on the other hand, has a product - an intangible product but a product. And they have loyalty from their users. There's no "splitting up" the online auction business but if someone puts up a better search engine, two-thirds of google's users would be gone by the end of that week.

Google is a great company, and I could very well be wrong about this, but I don't see them being around fifteen years from now.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by Beestie

Ebay, on the other hand, has a product - an intangible product but a product. And they have loyalty from their users. There's no "splitting up" the online auction business but if someone puts up a better search engine, two-thirds of google's users would be gone by the end of that week.

I hear a lot of "I hate Ebay(and paypal) but what choice do I have". If another auction becomes generally available, I can see a lot of people only going to Ebay after they've checked elsewhere first. Then if I want to sell a DoDad(shudder) and there's a thousand on Ebay, I'd put it up on the Avis(#2) auction hoping to catch them before they "resorted" to Ebay.

The people that have money in Google are also users. If they're happy users they will keep the faith and loyalty. Every site and especially search engines has quirks and shortcuts you learn with use. People will stay where they feel comfortable if they can. So I can't see a mass desertion until somebody comes along that's MUCH better. That said, I am an old fart and Google is nothing short of an act of god in my eyes.

[jaguar]

Yes I agree sm, that was my last point however, trust me, I know a lot of people working on this stuff, it's still a long, long way off. There are already limited attempts at this that operate on google search, not that you'd know it most of the time but they also have a side effect.

At the moment searching for things on the web is still quite an art, it requires thought and careful structuring of a query that might include up to 10-15 variables subtracing words, forcing combinations, finding synonyms etc. When executed well you can really carve down your results to the good stuff. This kind of 'helper' software can get in the way and mess that up.

The other problem with that kind of second-guessing/automation is when it works, it rocks, when it doesn't it's a royal pain in the ass that wastes your time. It would have to be pratically bulletproof to be a net gain for a poweruser and that is a long, long way off.

Also, consider how much info about you google would need for that mate. That's quite a tradeoff in my eyes.

If I was going to sink money in online shares I'd do it in ebay and amazon, between them their infrastructure is running more and more of the web's e-commerce. Stores on ebay, Amazon is now running the ecommerce infrastructure for about 5 big UK firms and the trend looks set to continue. That's a powerful position.

Don't get me wrong, google could floor us all and take a position that would be pratically unstoppable but it's far from in the bag. The competition is getting better too, the new MSN search isn't all that shabby and gets a lot of traffic from default pages & dumb users and yahoo is making ground.

[breakingnews]

It's Google's mission that makes it such a novel company. They're tackling a task that no one has ever experienced, and the reason they're winning is because Google services, for now, are free, and there are no indications the company will start charging the average user. They're making money on the commercial end by boxing the search engine in a plug n play computer (yes, you can own your own Google search server for like $3,000), but revenue is about 95-96% advertising, an industry in which I have little to no faith.

But yes, GOOG is no different than Microsoft, Netscrap, AOL - companies that worked on getting people *to* the Internet. Google is just showing people how to *use* the Internet. It's building the foundation for ways we can *live* the Internet. What we don't know is if Google will be the one to do that in the long run, when the world is a massive interconnected fiber-optic orgy.

Apple did the same thing by commercializing the GUI. Mac OS made it possible to get on a computer and find/do what you want to do with so much more ease, relevance and speed than trying your luck at DOS or gwbasic. Apple also claimed to be an "ideas" company - but they packaged their product and sold it themselves at prices the marketplace would not tolerate.

I, too, vote that Google will either disappear or become just another player in a saturated market with a fraction of its projected market cap at current growth rates. Before the end of the next decade.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by breakingnews

But yes, GOOG is no different than Microsoft, Netscrap, AOL - companies that worked on getting people *to* the Internet. Google is just showing people how to *use* the Internet. It's building the foundation for ways we can *live* the Internet. What we don't know is if Google will be the one to do that in the long run, when the world is a massive interconnected fiber-optic orgy.

I got a PC when I was about 55 and I own about 26 linear ft of bookshelves that have books just for reference material. To be able to find information, I could never remember, without leaving the house. The PC was fun and usefull if I had the address I needed but everytime I used a search engine it would keep trying to take me some place I didn't want to go. It seemed the whole purpose of the engine was to determine what I wanted to BUY. Google didn't show me *how* to use the internet, it gave me the ability to use the internet. Of course the bigger the net gets the more I need it. I might even start divesting some reference books...but not on Ebay.

[tw]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

Google didn't show me *how* to use the internet, it gave me the ability to use the internet. Of course the bigger the net gets the more I need it.

Back when the Cellar was only a BBS, numerous Cellar Dwellers got invites into Philly to discuss the future of the internet. We all sat in a room with a long conference table. At the end wall was a one way glass. They recorded what we said.

I remember my last summary point. There was so much information out there. The one thing we desperately needed was a tool to find all that information. Now all I had to do is build a search engine. Saw but did not act. Even I did not believe a search engine could be this profitable. I only saw it as something desperately required.

Don't remember who else from the Cellar participated. Also don’t remember who organized the discussion or what happened as a result.

[jaguar]

but they packaged their product and sold it themselves at prices the marketplace would not tolerate.

I disagree, they simply chose to aim for the A/AA market rather than the B/C market.
Don't seem to be doing that badly for it.

[breakingnews]

Initially, though, they also went after the family/home market with those "budget" Performa models (and several other lines too - don't recall the names - and remember the Mac clone era?). Not quite B/C market, but apparent that they were trying for some of the mainstream.

Regardless, the point there is that it's taken Apple a few years (and firing/rehiring Jobs) to figure out how to capitalize on its approx. 2% share of computers - i.e., pioneer another consumer-product market and pray.

[BigV]

Google scores another coup: Google hires Net pioneer Vint Cerf

I heard this guy's pretty smart. I bet their stock goes up again.