Predictions for 2002

[tw]

Originally posted by russotto
T1, frame relay, DSL, and cable modems use packet switched technology. The dearth of broadband has nothing to do with a lack of packet switched technology. And it has a lot more to do with Verizon than AT&T.

Circuit switching still has its place; you can't really maintain the quality of voice calls without it.

Movies, graphical development using international, real-time cooperation, a speech to your most loyal 100,000 supporters, and even voice calls are all limited by a bandwidth bottleneck. As noted, bandwidth exists everywhere except in the last mile. Why no quality voice on the internet? The existing (some not implemented due to no demand) technology is stifled by a severe shortage of broadband access.

Yes, baby Bells (including Verizon) are guilty. But it is AT&T who promised to provide after stifling the technology in its own organizations for over a decade, then again reversed itself to install circuit switch technology, then gave up by selling $100 billion cable companies for only $70 billion. AT&T is a most classic example of why broadband is stifled - of why we still use ineffecient circuit switch technology. Of why the computer industry has had the largest downturn in sales in over 20 years.

Infastructure provided by companies that now became Comcast also contributed to the stifling which is why Comcast must remove and reinstall its entire network - for the third time. Why are cable rates so high?

[russotto]

Originally posted by tw

As noted, bandwidth exists everywhere except in the last mile.

Actually, no. There's lots of bandwidth available on the last mile, for most people. Most broadband users are not using all they can get on the last mile. Why? Because the major bottleneck is a bit further up. There's tons and tons of long-haul bandwidth, not to mention plenty of dark fiber if there was a real shortage. But getting from the CO to that bandwidth is a big problem. Note that this is all packet-switched data.

Why no quality voice on the internet? The existing (some not implemented due to no demand) technology is stifled by a severe shortage of broadband access.

The internet is based on IP. IP is inherently not well suited for voice and other low-latency isocronous data. Circuit-switched technologies react to increased utilization the proper way for voice; IP does not.

[Nic Name]

Attributed to Yogi Berra

Making predictions is risky - especially when it involves the future.

I wonder if he worked hard to come up with his quotes, or they just came to him. They're so goofy they almost have to have been formulated.