Stock Market

[lookout123]

I'll respond to that in two ways:

1) Who is this "we" you keep referring to? Are the voices getting to you again? (I'm actually just teasing, I'd be disappointed if you had broken form and hadn't posted this)

2) Who says stock brokers, financial advisors, financial planners, shiny shoe whores, (pick your favored term) underperform the market? I challenged you a few years ago to post your portfolio performance against my recommendations in real time, changes made as needed to test your theories. You have never even responded, let alone accept the challenge.

[tw]

Originally Posted by lookout123

1) Who is this "we" you keep referring to?

The we is layman. We watch what so many market analysts say. To say ignore them is it lose a valuable source of information as well as take some of the fun out of it.

For example, important in what each of 'they' say are the reasons why. The 'whys' can quickly identify those who know only by playing numbers games from those who know by acutally understanding the a company is doing.

Same applies to finaniclal markets. Many appear to be taking significant losses verses a smaller number who saw this problem many years ago and hedged appropriately.

Meanwhile, numbers repeatedly reported from various sources noted how stock brokers underperform the market by about 1%. A summation of mutual funds (that are not indexed) also demonstrates the problem. Mutual funds tend to underperform the market by about 1% - sometimes 2%.

Recommending one to ignore the analysts is good if the investor blindly hands his money to others for investment. Becoming a good investor is not hard as long as one limits to industries that he understands. As Peter Lynch noted, the private investor with about 5 stocks can often outperform the market. But that means knowing the company, understanding its industry, and keeping an eye on those market analysts who can subvert or upend the market with their fears.

Applying to current situations - caution is advised. These market analysts have a history of misreading the numbers, promoting things as good (as they usually do) and then suddenly going into panic mode. This tends to occur in October but has lately occured in months earlier.

Having said that and if believing in an industry that is poised to get or stay on track, then one now would be watching some investments that should be very good buys in these next few months. But again, that means watching those market analysts so as to understand their and their peers emotions.

Investors in Google, Goldman Sachs, Toyota, and Citigroup have recently taken a beating. I believe each may have lost their entire profits for the year in but a month. The first three appear to be very solid companies. Could one take advantage of investments at fire sale prices?

Or invest in Cisco that is now at 150% of the price last September even after the sharp downturn? Or Intel that is now at 133% (did you notice how Intel started chewing into AMD)? Or Apple at 185% even after the downturn. Do we invest based upon these numbers? Both reasons are usually offered by those analysts. Neither are, by themselves, significant reasons for making a decision. But listening to those analysts who promote this reasoning should make it apparent whether he makes money on promotion - or actually understands the investement, its industry, and its products.

Listen to those market analysts. Sometimes they can draw attention to a gem. Use their emotion to understand the hype. Don't listen to them for what to do. Listen to them to, instead, understand the whys.

Now is a good time for making a decision if even only talking about 100 shares. I don't waste money on lottery tickets. 100 shares on the stock market is currently is far more fun than any lottery tickets. I don't like buying losers - such as lottery tickets. Second guessing market analysts is also part of the fun.

Right now is when it gets very fun.

[yesman065]

tw, did you just use "fun" and "emotion" multiple times is the same thread? I must be sleep posting!

[lookout123]

TW, I've said it before and I'll say it again. You have no idea what it is I (or other advisors) do for a living. You refer to numerous studies, but show me the actual numbers. Many mutual funds do under perform the market. Fewer underperform if actually compared to the appropriate benchmarks. That's the point. But many, MANY, outperform the market. Finding them is the trick. That is what I do. I match my clients up with the appropriate investments for their A) risk tolerance, B) time horizon, C) goals. When you take that into account, you'll realize that the benchmark isn't the end all, be all.

I've often stated that it is not necessary to have a financial advisor. One can successfully build their own retirement plan, they may also be capable of planning for the catastrophic needs that come up. A few can effectively assemble an efficient estate plan as well. Unfortunately, most individuals would be just as successful doing all of those things as I would be building a computer, writing a program, mounting a successful legal defense, performing surgery, or designing a revolutionary component for the space program. The point is that not everyone has the time, ability, or desire to learn what it is that I spend all day every day doing. Most of those people aren't concerned with making sure they get to brag about milking every last basis point out of the market at the next geeks-r-us meeting. Believe it or not, successful individuals don't begrudge me my fees because they've taken the time to learn what I do for them. I provide returns in line with the market in up times, I protect them in down times, I walk with them through both up and down times, and I do this all with less risk than the overall market.

But you can keep reading your white papers about my industry, and thinking you know it all. BTW, care to venture a guess as to who is bankrolling the studies you refer to? I'm sure they don't have an agenda. But I'm sure you thought of that.

[tw]

Originally Posted by lookout123

TW, I've said it before and I'll say it again. You have no idea what it is I (or other advisors) do for a living.

Are you going to pull a Yesman? I don't know. I don't care. It's not relevant what you do. And it has zero relevance to the discussion in this thread. I have no idea why you are bragging. I have no idea why what you do is even worthy of posting. It is all irrelvant. But somehow you are wasting everyone's time with expressions based in ego.

Ego is not relevant. Whether you are hurt or not is not relevant. The topic is the stockmarket that has nothing to do with any one or anyone's image.

If you have facts relevant to the discussion, then post them. Don't just threaten to post information. Post it - or get off the pot.

[lookout123]

Originally Posted by tw

Are you going to pull a Yesman? I don't know. I don't care. It's not relevant what you do. And it has zero relevance to the discussion in this thread. I have no idea why you are bragging. I have no idea why what you do is even worthy of posting. It is all irrelvant. But somehow you are wasting everyone's time with expressions based in ego.

Ego is not relevant. Whether you are hurt or not is not relevant. The topic is the stockmarket that has nothing to do with any one or anyone's image.

If you have facts relevant to the discussion, then post them. Don't just threaten to post information. Post it - or get off the pot.

What the hell are you talking about? You are such an amusing little man. You expound on the subject of the markets trying to wow us with your well of knowledge but anytime someone responds to your thoughts you can only respond with insults or condescension and then act like you've done no such thing.

Here's an idea. Step away from the keyboard and the encyclopedia. Walk out of your mother's basement and try joining the rest of humanity. You might just like it. You might also learn something. A good place to start would be with the idea that maybe you don't know everything.

[elSicomoro]

Originally Posted by lookout123

Walk out of your mother's basement and try joining the rest of humanity.

Actually, he lives in a dingy apartment around the corner from you.

[yesman065]

Originally Posted by lookout123

Here's an idea. Step away from the keyboard and the encyclopedia. Walk out of your mother's basement and try joining the rest of humanity. You might just like it. You might also learn something. A good place to start would be with the idea that maybe you don't know everything.

[tw]

Originally Posted by lookout123

What the hell are you talking about?

For all we know, lookout123 could be the Einstein of finance. Completely irrelevant. What only matters here are the supporting whys for statments posted. Make claims and withhold the whys - then don't expect a post to have credibiity.

Lookout123, if you know so much about the stock market, then simply state those facts and and include numerous reasons 'why'. Posting emotional tells us you think you are smarter. I don't care if you are a genius. It is not relevant. Only relevant are the reasons why you obtain a conclusion. If your only reason 'why' is because you are a stock broker, then your post has zero credibility. That is no insult of stock brokes. Who you are is not relevant. Only the 'whys' are relevant.

So prove me wrong. Show me you can stay adult. Show us these insights you have into market analysts AND provide numerous supporting facts 'why'. Do it without a meltdown. I don't care about your emotional state. And I may just decide to feed on it because you cannot even state 'why' you are angry. Your emotion is not relevant to the topic. That you do not post reasons 'why' is very relevant.

I don't care who you are. You, the person, do not even exist here. Only existing here are your posts - that are currently shy of 'why'. Your posts only credibilty comes from posting those 'whys'. The source is not relevant. Why are you upset only because my conclusions are a completely different perspective from yours? If you are confident of your conclusions, then upset would instead be replaced with 'whys' and 'why nots'.

[Shawnee123]

Originally Posted by tw

Are you going to pull a Yesman?

Well, if by that you mean astute and informed yet compassionate, then yes, i guess i'm pulling a yesman. :p

[yesman065]

tw - I have tried, in vain, to make peace with you - I have posted numerous times my thoughts, opinions and YES my feelings. All of this and you still attack me or act as though you are better than me - before you go off on your "no attack was made therefore it doesn't exist" bullshit. Lemme ask you "Pulling a yesman" what exactly does that mean???? I tried to treat you with consideration and attempted to make amends - YOU, tw, are an asshole in the first, second and third person. There is no reason for you to bring me up in this thread - I have not posted once nor given you any call to use me as a negative reference. You are too much of a pussy to even respond when I directly post to you and here you go like a little girl??? Fuck you and the go cart you road in on.

[tw]

Originally Posted by yesman065

tw - I have tried, in vain, to make peace with you - I have posted numerous times my thoughts, opinions and YES my feelings.

I have no idea what those peace offerings are. Again you were not attacked. Why do you take insult again where none exists? If you cannot acknowledge your previous meltdown over mythical insults , then you will always view posted facts as personal attacks. You had a meltdown over something that did not exist. That was the reality.

Yesman065 viewed a school bus with a perspective. Then took insult when another contrasted his perspective with the bigger picture. Those are the facts. Get over it. You had a meltdown over insults that only existed in your head; that did not exist anywhere in the post. Are you going to meltdown again - or learn from assumed insults that did not exist? I have no idea what constitute peace offerings. You had a meltdown over a post that was only a constrast of perspectives. Those are the facts. Get over it.

[Shawnee123]

HAL: Let me put it this way, Mr. Amor. The 9000 series is the most reliable computer ever made. No 9000 computer has ever made a mistake or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error.

:yawn:

[yesman065]

Originally Posted by tw

I have no idea what those peace offerings are. Again you were not attacked. Why do you take insult again where none exists? If you cannot acknowledge your previous meltdown over mythical insults , then you will always view posted facts as personal attacks. You had a meltdown over something that did not exist. That was the reality.
Yesman065 viewed a school bus with a perspective. Then took insult when another contrasted his perspective with the bigger picture. Those are the facts. Get over it. You had a meltdown over insults that only existed in your head; that did not exist anywhere in the post. Are you going to meltdown again - or learn from assumed insults that did not exist? I have no idea what constitute peace offerings. You had a meltdown over a post that was only a constrast of perspectives. Those are the facts. Get over it.

Originally Posted by tw

So how did you get those children off and taken care of - since you worry about things relevant? Those in MN responded accordingly. Why do you associate yourself with them?

I made no effort to solve any problem. I simply posted a link to which tw chose to attack me in post #8. Because I am a compassionate human.

Originally Posted by tw

That definitely was not Yesman065 who would somehow save children by worrying?

I never said I was going to save anyone by worrying about them. It is NORMAL to be concerned with the welfare of others though, and to express that concern. tw constantly claims that he does not read into others posts or make assumptions about that which may have been implied, reading only the words one has written. Why would tw assume that anyone was trying to save a child when all I did was post a link to an article with absolutely no opinion posted. And yet again an example of how tw reads into others posts that which was not written - Why does tw constantly tend to read into statements things which do not exist. Please refer to the original post in this thread for IRONCLAD proof. Contrastly, tw feels compelled to criticize others if/when they appear to have done the same?

Originally Posted by tw

Whereas you were concerned with details you could do nothing about, instead, I was more concerned with the bigger picture - and things I might be able to accomplish.

INCORRECT - I was not concerned with details at all. I VERY SIMPLY posted a link, nothing more nothing less. I had not intent at that time to solve any problems jump out the door and examine any bridges. tw seems to not be able to grasp this concept even though he has been repeatedly told. Why does tw continue to assume every post is about what HE thinks it is about instead of recognizing that other people post for their own reasons? All claims of superior thought through logical emotionless conclusions would not be made were it not for the underlying emotional need for said change or improvement to take place. One can only assume that posting dispassionately lets tw feel he is somehow greater or better or in some way superior. That tw's posts are intentionally devoid of any feeling has no bearing nor does it lend any credibility to his posts. This is a further example of how tw reads into posts that which is not there. Why tw? Why does tw see things that do not exist? What is it tw has accomplished by attacking yesman? Has tw accomplished anything since this bridge collapsed? has tw taken any action? Take notice - that information is conveniently lacking from tw's posts.

Originally Posted by tw

Your offer was simple. You stopped posting attacks and the only time I demonstrated what an insult really looks like then stopped - just as I stated. See how easy it works?

No, not really, the veil has been removed and the seething ridicule is now out in the open. For example see post # 8 where tw completely unprovoked in any way shape or form reads into a link that which does not exist and attacks yesman without any cause whatsoever. The demeaning TONE, yes there is a tone in the written word, which tw used was completely uncalled for. I made an offer to you for an end of your attacks and my counterattacks so that the cellar would not have to deal with this issue in ever thread where you choose to attack me. Furthermore, I created a thread specifically for tw to express his feelings, if any, attack me if tw wished or to reach a compromise. tw chose none of them - What we are left with is a "cesspool of wanker logic." {tm tw} The offer was apparently not simple enough for tw. tw could not even be man enough to respond to said offer in the appropriate place. Why is that? Why is it that tw is unable or unwilling to act accordingly when an offer for peace was made? Highly illogical for one who purports logical superiority.

Originally Posted by tw

Yesman065 worries about kids he can do nothing for (and calls that responsible action?)

yesman (now you have me referring to myself in the third person) - very strange indeed - will repeat himself again. It seems that tw must believe that if the same incorrect point is repeatedly stated enough times will somehow will it to validity. No it will not. A most serious illogical transgression. No matter how many times an incorrect assumption is repeated it shall forever remain incorrect. yesman posted a link - nothing more, nothing less. yesman had no intention whatsoever at that time to solve any problems nor examine any bridges. tw seems to not be able to grasp this concept even though he has been repeatedly told this. yesman made no effort to imply nor intended to determine a responsible course of action. That is another attempt by tw to make another erroneous claim completely unfounded and without basis. Why tw? Why does tw see things that do not exist?

yesman would like to take this opportunity to state that he was concerned about the traumatic events of that evening and would like to express his concern for the well being of the children on that school bus. Additionally, yesman would like to express his thankfulness to his God that they are all physically ok. Nothing more nothing less. There was never any attempt to examine any other bridges nor did yesman make any claims to have done so.

Originally Posted by tw

The minute that bridge collapsed, our immediate concern was why and what other school buses are at risk. For example, how many bridges of that design exist in your county? Three exist in MN. Did you know that? Do you know those answers that are very much relevant if concerned for the safety of your peers? Why not?

Those questions are not yesman's to ask. yesman is not in the field of engineering, however if yesman were to derive that information it would do yesman little good to know that information. Therefore that displays another illogical question derived on faulty logic which deserves no reply. How much time did tw spend to accrue that useless information? If that information becomes useful what is tw going to do with it? Has tw done anything constructive to address whatever situation tw has determined is in need? What tw, what would yesman or any other reader do with such information? Perhaps yesman could call his congressman and express his concern for the children in his area. Does yesman need that information to do that? yesman thinks not. In fact, yesman has already emailed and called his local representative to express his concerns about bridges in his area. Has tw done the same? Has tw taken any action? tw has offered no solutions, no ideas, in fact all tw has offered is long winded posts questioning others feelings and opinions. Hardly a prudent course of action. What tw, what logic was this course of action you have chosen based upon? tell us what tw has done to increase the safety of the children who ride school buses near tw. Perhaps tw is not concerned enough about the children in tw's area to take action himself? yesman does not know as tw has not offered any constructive information on the subject.

Originally Posted by tw

Maybe you worry about things that cannot be solved. So tell us. How many bridges in your area have the same non-redundant design? Did you ask? Is anyone? Or do we simply wait for another school bus to fall?

OMG - again? My fingers hurt from repeating myself ad nauseum - should you, at this point, still need and answer to these questions than you are beyond help.

In conclusion, yesman recognized a need and took the appropriate action (calling his representatives) whereas tw has simply chosen to attack other posters feelings and opinions - hardly logical nor constructive.

Why does tw find it necessary to attack others when no attack was initially made nor implied?

[tw]

What Yesman065 calls an attack:

Demonstrated is a difference between what yesman065 saw and what I saw. That yellow school bus: time to worry about it was long ago when this failure was predictable. Whereas contents of that bus were immediate concern to those on the bridge, instead, the rest of us should be worrying about all school busses.

Dude. Do you also get upset when someone looks at you wrong? Dude. Its not entertaining watching you make a fool of yourself. Get over it. You took insult where none existed.