02-13-2009, 01:54 AM | #136 |
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Thanks Redux for pointing all that out.
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02-13-2009, 02:59 PM | #137 |
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OH LOOK! a Poll!
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02-13-2009, 05:08 PM | #138 |
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Redux, Do you have the actual questions to that poll? Who was defined as "leaders" Were they local, national, not specified? I'm seriously interested. Polls fascinate me. I am one of those people that answer them and surveys all the time. Problem is they mostly offer some really bad choices which virtually force an answer that is usually what the pollster or their backers wanted in the first place.
Many times I have given alternate answers as the options were not accurate enough that the pollster stops in the middle, thanks me and moves on. I do find it strange that the congressional approval ratings nearly doubled in the last few weeks/months according to the poll you posted.
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02-13-2009, 05:18 PM | #139 |
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Hmm...
I decided to look them up myself - CONGRESS – Job Rating in national polls The first column is .......date..app..disapp..unsure...+- Ipsos/McClatchy...............2/6-9/09 37 59 * -22 CNN/Opinion Research........2/7-8/09 29 71 - -42 CBS.................................2/2-4/09 26 62 12 -36 FOX/Opinion Dynamics.....1/27-28/09 40 46 14 -6 FOX/Opinion Dynamics.....1/13-14/09 23 68 10 -45 NBC/Wall Street Journal....1/9-12/09 23 68 9 -45 USA Today/Gallup 1/9-11/09 19 76 5 -57 I must be looking at different data than you. CNN/Opinion Research ..2/7-8/09.....29.....71.....-.....-42 CNN/Opinion Research 10/3-5/08.....23.....76.....1.....-53 with approval ratings consistently in the 20's over the last two polls I ail to see how suddenly the ratings are jumping into the 50's and 60's as in your poll by the same organization.
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02-13-2009, 05:57 PM | #140 | |
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Quote:
Merc and I have been through this....polls of Congress as a whole are vastly different and have many more variables than polls of 1-2 individuals or polls of the parties. Congress' low number as a whole (a body of 545) over the last two years are attributed to many factors: some democratic voters rated Congress very low for not impeaching Bush, some republicans voters because of all the talk of impeaching Bush and holding so many oversight hearingsWhen you are rating a person or a party, you are generally rating an easily identified ideology and voting record. When you rate Congress as a whole, there is no single ideology or voting record. The polls asking the public (of both parties and indys) to rate Congress by party rather than as a single body are one means of addressing some of these questions....and the term "Congressional leaders" would generally be explained by the pollsters. Job rating - Democrats in Congress Job rating - Republicans in Congress Perhaps you understand the difference.....Merc doesnt. I wont bet my house on poll numbers but results of a poll or poll trends do represent a reasonably valid snapshot of public opinion at and/or over a defined period of time. There is a reason why both parties spending $millions on polls...it does provide that snapshot. Last edited by Redux; 02-13-2009 at 07:19 PM. |
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02-13-2009, 08:23 PM | #141 |
“Hypocrisy: prejudice with a halo”
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Bottom line, if you are going to use the most popular polls, is that Congress has had approval ratings well below Bush for over 2 years. Maybe they can ride the coat tails of Obama and gain some ground on his positive energy, but even that appears to be slipping.
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02-13-2009, 08:31 PM | #142 | |
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Was it a telephone poll? Who did they call? Who took the time to answer the questions? What is the demographics? How do you extrapolate that to 305 million people? You can't. Anyone who studies statistics knows that the poll is the weakest form of statistical measure. Straw Poll = Straw Man.
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02-13-2009, 09:12 PM | #143 | |
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In a straw poll, anyone can participate. The credible polling organizations use representative samples to predict the larger universe of voters with a relatively small error of margin. They are widely accepted in politics, economics, sociology, statistics, and any field of research. Objective observers know the difference. |
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02-13-2009, 09:18 PM | #144 | |||||
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The war powers are by no means "unprecedented." Compared to war powers during declared states of war, the Bush Admininstration's are somewhat reduced -- check what Roosevelt did with strikers during WW2. Granted, what we saw was a try at assuming war powers without the legal aegis of a Congressional declaration of war, which would have completely smoothed the President's road. Those exact war powers are still held by the Obama Presidency, by the way. Quote:
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The Republicans did things I wanted done, that I really wanted done, which I think will ring down the decades as heroic, wise things. The Democrats haven't managed that in any particular since 1991, and I think the last time I voted for a Democratic candidate might have been well before that year. That's a long time for a national party to be consigned to the "Idiots" box.
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02-13-2009, 09:25 PM | #145 | ||||
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Many (most?) constitutional scholars, conservative and liberal, would suggest that an AUMF is not equal to a War Powers Resolution or Declaration of War. Next- politicization of the Department of Justice Quote:
Last edited by Redux; 02-13-2009 at 10:42 PM. |
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02-13-2009, 09:50 PM | #146 | |
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UG...I am still waiting for you to explain your Republicans = integrity assertion in another discussion in light of what I posted in response.
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02-14-2009, 08:50 AM | #147 |
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Fail. Widely known as the weakest forms of statistical measure.
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02-14-2009, 08:59 AM | #148 | |
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That polling using random samples to reflect the larger universe, along with including margins of error, and review of questions for bias, have little validity. Sorry, but you are blowing smoke out of your ass. |
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02-14-2009, 09:19 AM | #149 |
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Anyone who hangs much validity on polls is the smoke coming out of my ass. So far you have not proven a damm thing.
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02-14-2009, 09:23 AM | #150 | ||
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You might start with this publication from the American Statistical Association: Quote:
Polls you see on the Drudge, CNN.com, etc where anyone can click and submit have no standards. Last edited by Redux; 02-14-2009 at 10:34 AM. |
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