Hezbollah night-vision gear manufactured in Britain

[JayMcGee]

mmmm.... as I understand the situation, Hezbollah rockets are fired at a pretty much random pattern into Northern Israel. They land, explode and unfortunatly have killed some tens of Israeli citizens.

The IDF, perhaps rightly so, think this is not a good thing, and bombard Lebannon with mucho macho munitions. Of which a good proportion are designed not to explode on impact but to go *bang* (ha-ha - got you - now go break a leg (if you still have a leg)) when overt hostilities are over.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Not true Jay, they're not designed to not to explode on impact, they are all supposed to go off. It's a problem they would like to address, because usually the first people in the area after we drop them, are our troops.

[richlevy]

An internal fuse tells each submunition when to detonate--either "above ground, at impact, or in a delayed mode." (35)

So really, there is no way to prove intent without knowing if the fuses were set to delayed mode or impact.

One measure would be comparing total expended with total unexploded found.

[Hippikos]

IOW, you're not in EOD. You've lost this one; now have the grace to shut the fuck up and sit down. However tough you think you are, I'm probably tougher, likely wiser, probably older and more experienced, and I spell like someone who's paying attention. I'm simply saying I'm not putting up with nonsense from you. There's no shame in that for either of us.

Ah...more tough talk from our keyboard warrior. What has the EOD got to do with this all? What I said was that it's easy to be tough from an EZ chair in an airconditioned room and that you would talk differently having clusterbombs in your back garden.

My spelling may have room for improvement, but that's because English is not my first language. But we could continue this discussion in Dutch, French or German if you like, maybe your spelling in these languages is also better than mine, n'est-ce-pas?

As for your experience, I have no doubt that you have more experience selling patatoe cutters than me.

[Hippikos]

So we're up to *three* football fields now? It was two last time. Will it be four on the next round? Since you're so jiggy with the effective radius, what's the CEP on one of these delivered from an F-16?

This is what I wrote: “…can be as large as two or three football fields” try to keep up with reality for once, MaggieL.
Cluster bombs are delivered either by aircraft, rocket or by artillerie. Since we are talking numbers, less than 50 Israelian civillians died, over a 1000 Lebanese civillians died. Does that mean Israel did a better job with a more effective radius?

The actual number is more like 5%. Where are you getting your numbers?

Here:
“We're finding strikes that are in people's houses, in the middle of the street, around hospitals," said Chris Clark, program manager of the UN Mine Action Co-ordination Center in southern Lebanon. Approximately 250,000 Lebanese of the one million displaced cannot move back into their homes, many because of unexploded munitions.

An unusual number of cluster bombs used in the war did not detonate on impact, possibly because they were old, Mr Egeland said. Usually 10-15 per cent of the bomblets fail to explode immediately. According to some estimates, up to 70 per cent of the Israeli bomblets failed to explode initially. Civilians returning to their homes in southern Lebanon are experiencing "massive problems," as a result of these unexploded munitions, Mr Egeland said.” (Times Online)

Usually between 20 and 30% are duds, but it seem Israel has used old cluster bombs resulting in a higher number of unexploded bomblets. UN says it was 70%, I kept it a little more conservative.
Cluster bombs disperse widely and are difficult to target precisely, they are especially dangerous when used near civilian areas. In addition, they are prone to failure: if the container opens at the wrong height, or the bomblets don't fuse properly, or their descent is broken by trees, or they land on soft ground - they may not detonate. This risk is known to the military who ordered to use it.

And who will investigate what Hezbollah has been doing? Oh...that's right...

You see, MaggieL, contrary what you do with Israel, I never whitewashed what Hezbollah did. I accuse both sides of atrocities against civillians, albeit Israel on a MUCH larger scale.

[Ibby]

Originally Posted by Hippikos

You see, MaggieL, contrary what you do with Israel, I never whitewashed what Hezbollah did. I accuse both sides of atrocities against civillians, albeit Israel on a MUCH larger scale.

The thing is, Israel never MEANT to... Hezbollah did.

[MaggieL]

Originally Posted by Hippikos

Since we are talking numbers, less than 50 Israelian civillians died, over a 1000 Lebanese civillians died. Does that mean Israel did a better job with a more effective radius?

No, it means that Israel keeps its civilians away from combat as much as possble, whereas Hezbollah considers siting their weapons and personel among Lebanese civilians and adjacent to UN position to be a political propiganda advantage. So people like you will blame the Israelis for the result.

There's only two reasons you haven't seen huge Hezbollah antipersonel weapons detonating in downtown Tel Aviv: they don't have them and can't deliver them there. They brag about the larger Russian and Chineese-designed missles thev've managed to drop randomly on civilians in Haifa...much of the remainder of which missles have now been destroyed on the ground by the same Israeli airstrikes you condem. (Replacements are on the way, of course.)

They're clearly not constrained by any moral or legal considerations; it's all a matter of capabilities; we know what their intentions are. So one can hardly wait for the Iranians to have nukes.

You can bandy scary words about how much area a cluster bomb can cover, but in fact that can be controlled. How much area actually was covered by each of the weapons you're complaining about?

You don't know. You don't know how many were dropped, or what kind, or where (except in the vaguest terms). You certainly don't know why.--what military target they were being amed at when they were released; you can be certain that any evidence of that will be removed before the press and UN are brought in. All you do know is it makes a just dandy excuse to pillory the Israelis.

I don't need to whitewash the Israelis...all the credible evidence I've seen so far suggests they have been doing no more than defending themselves from attack.

[Hippikos]

No, it means that Israel keeps its civilians away from combat as much as possble, whereas Hezbollah considers siting their weapons and personel among Lebanese civilians and adjacent to UN position to be a political propiganda advantage. So people like you will blame the Israelis for the result.

Israel already killed 52 Lebanon civillians the first day (including 15 children) before any rockets has been launched by Hizbollah, more than Israelian civillians the whole 33 day war.

There's only two reasons you haven't seen huge Hezbollah antipersonel weapons detonating in downtown Tel Aviv: they don't have them and can't deliver them there. They brag about the larger Russian and Chineese-designed missles thev've managed to drop randomly on civilians in Haifa...much of the remainder of which missles have now been destroyed on the ground by the same Israeli airstrikes you condem. (Replacements are on the way, of course.)

Hizbollah has Iranian missiles that can hit Tel-Aviv. Most likely Tehran has forbid Hizbollah to use them, for now.

They're clearly not constrained by any moral or legal considerations; it's all a matter of capabilities; we know what their intentions are.

Neither has Israel, as been shown in the Gaza strip, the West Bank and Lebanon the last 50 years.

So one can hardly wait for the Iranians to have nukes.

And then? Israel has them for decades, without signing any proliferation treaty. Pakistan has them, one can hardly wait for Musharraf being replaced.

You don't know. You don't know how many were dropped, or what kind, or where (except in the vaguest terms). You certainly don't know why.--what military target they were being amed at when they were released; you can be certain that any evidence of that will be removed before the press and UN are brought in. All you do know is it makes a just dandy excuse to pillory the Israelis.

Three types of artillery-delivered cluster bombs were used by Israel in Lebanon -- two U.S.-made (M42 and M77) and one Israeli (M85)

So far, the United Nations has found 400 strike sites where cluster bombs were used -- "a lot of them U.S.-manufactured"

U.N. demining teams, who have destroyed 2,900 sub-munitions so far, predict it would take 12 to 15 months to clean up the cluster bombs. (Source: Reuters)

I don't need to whitewash the Israelis...

You are doing your very best the last 16 pages of this thread...

[MaggieL]

Originally Posted by Hippikos

Three types of artillery-delivered cluster bombs were used by Israel in Lebanon -- two U.S.-made (M42 and M77) and one Israeli (M85)

And how many of those were delay fused? Artillery shells aren't your "three football field" aerial bombs. A little bit of retroactive Googling such as you've obviously done isn't going to be sufficient here.

Also some support for your claim that Hezbollah has large missiles that can strike Tel Aviv would be nice. Of course Iran has them, but you're claiming they've been delivered in Lebanon, and survived?

Or are they (and their crews) simply waiting to cross the Syrian border disguised as humanitarian relief?

[Hippikos]

Originally Posted by MaggieL

And how many of those were delay fused?

I never mentioned anything about delay fused (show me). I said US and Israel military knew about the high rate of duds when using cluster bombs. Stop mudding water for once, MaggieL.

Artillery shells aren't your "three football field" aerial bombs. A little bit of retroactive Googling such as you've obviously done isn't going to be sufficient here.

Artillery and rockets are even less accurate than other form of delivery.

Also some support for your claim that Hezbollah has large missiles that can strike Tel Aviv would be nice. Of course Iran has them, but you're claiming they've been delivered in Lebanon, and survived?

Such a pitty you never seem to believe me MaggieL, maybe you believe The Jerusalem Post?

Or are they (and their crews) simply waiting to cross the Syrian border disguised as humanitarian relief?

Probably they're waiting for the US humanitarian relief to Israel.

[Griff]

Originally Posted by MaggieL

No, it means that Israel keeps its civilians away from combat as much as possble, whereas Hezbollah considers siting their weapons and personel among Lebanese civilians and adjacent to UN position to be a political propiganda advantage. So people like you will blame the Israelis for the result.

Marjayoun

[MaggieL]

Originally Posted by Griff

Marjayoun

I think we can safely place Fisk in that category too. There's other less biased coverage of the "untold story" online; I recommend Google.

[Griff]

His bias is an open mind. Sometimes it gets him in trouble because he prints stories as they develop but, he is better than most and actually understands the interplay of factions.

[JayMcGee]

doesn't matter where it lands - it will explode on impact and thus constitute no further danger to future visitors to that area.

OTH, the IDF are much more precise about where their munitions land, but are somewhat less sanguine about the immediate damage. A furtherance of their 'interdiction' policy, perhaps....

[MaggieL]

Originally Posted by JayMcGee

doesn't matter where it lands

So...that would be indisciminate, then.

It *does* matter where it lands, if it misses Tel Aviv, then it hasn't "reached the city". ..and with a CEP measured in miles, that's what will happen.

If there are any Zelzal-2s left intact in Lebanon (if there were any to begin with, and there's considerable dispute about that) they were probably what the cluster bombs were used on; anti-materiel/anti-armor is what they're best at. Assuming first that they did ever cross the border and second weren't destroyed by the IDF, they still aren't available to Hezbollah apparently because they're dual-keyed, and can only be launched on command from the Iranian crews (of whom there aren't any in Lebanon, right?). It's the most implausible "plausible deniability" I've ever seen...the old shell game again: Hezbollah "has" missles but can't launch them...but if they *are* launched Iran will blame Hezbollah.

The Iranians won't launch now because if they did manage to hit anywhere near Tel Aviv, they'd trigger exactly the responses they're trying to deter in the first place: massive Israeli response directly aganst military targets in Iran, very likely including strikes against their nuclear facilities.

To deter a strike against the nuke facilities until Iran has weapons ready to go (and nobody really knows exactly how long that will actually be, including the Iranians), the Iranians want to keep that pistol to the head of Israel...if they even still have any Zelzal-2s in Lebanon, which is doubtful at best.

So Hezbollah doesn't have control of a weapon that would hit Tel Aviv...because if they did they'd use it. Which is why they're dual-keyed. It's not a matter of their intent, they just don't actually have the capability.

If North Korea manages to pull off a sucessful underground test of their design, I'd expect one or two of them to be covertly sold to Iran very quickly; NK needs the cash desparately and Iran has it. Iran's not dumb enough to buy warheads that have never been tested.

tw seems to think airports aren't military targets. Stuff like this is why they are.