Ye Olde Videoe Clippe Threade

[Big Sarge]

[Clodfobble]

Originally Posted by glatt

But our economies have always been set up on expecting payment for goods. And we work to get the money to pay for the stuff. If machines do the work, we won't be getting that payment. The only source of money will be owning stock in the companies that own the machines. Or I suppose real estate. You could be a landlord.

I think humanity would have to come up with a different idea of what an economy is.

Payment for goods or services, including most importantly, entertainment. Like that horse analogy that they used in the video... the horses aren't all dead, it's just that now we ride them for fun instead of work. On beaches and dude ranches and camps for children. You can easily rent half a dozen ponies for a child's birthday party.

Think about the incredible variety of media we have today, compared to 100 years ago. I can choose from an ever-deepening matrix of movies and TV shows that appeal to my very specific, nuanced tastes. I don't care how good the machines get, we are a long, long way off from artificially-generated live-action films. And that music that we were supposed to be impressed was composed by a computer? It wasn't that great, and more importantly it didn't involve voice, which is what the majority of people want in their music.

On the one hand, the video is right to point out that the majority of creative types aren't making a living at it. On the other hand, the number who are making a living at it is exponentially higher than it used to be. Jobs which will not be automated in the upcoming revolution:

Videogame designer
Interior designer
Fashion designer
Live performers
Musicians
ALL movie jobs
Massage therapist
Childcare
Eldercare
Dentistry
Teachers (professors may go, but studies have shown again and again that screens are useful but fundamentally cannot compete with human interaction for young children.)
Chef (the luxury of quality food ingredients and preparation is already making a comeback)
Judges/Jurors (grand jurors already get paid, and I can see a time where they fully professionalize this arena)
Trial lawyers (maybe a computer can do discovery and write boilerplate briefs, but a computer cannot give an impassioned speech over guilt and innocence.)

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

On the other hand, the number who are making a living at it is exponentially higher than it used to be.

Even better: jobs will exist which we do not know about today, and can't even anticipate, because we don't know what advances will come about.

We look at the jobs which will go away, and we have fear. Look at the jobs that have gone away in our lifetime and our parents' lifetimes. Every office had a POOL of people whose job it was to merely type things. Every single telephone switch had a human making connections manually and speaking to the users. Every elevator had a person whose job it was to close the doors and raise and lower the car. These jobs are gone. They have mostly been replaced with better ones.

How many jobs have been created since 1914. Here is a list of the 50 most common job titles in the US. Let's just do the top 10. Did these exist 100 years ago?

Physical therapist - did not exist
Occupational therapist - did not exist
Administrative Assistant - did not exist
Teller - existed
Registered Nurse - existed
Manager - existed
Project Manager - did not exist
Driver - existed
Customer Service Representative - did not exist
Accountant - existed

These are not just any jobs, these are the most common jobs today, and in 1914 half of them were not recognized professions. Onto Clod's list of what she, and we, anticipate are the kinds of jobs that will be more popular in the future. Did they exist 100 years ago?

Videogame designer - did not exist
Interior designer - did not exist
Fashion designer - existed but in lower numbers
Live performers - existed but in lower numbers
Musicians - existed but in lower numbers
ALL movie jobs - existed
Massage therapist - did not exist
Childcare - did not exist except for the rich
Eldercare - did not exist or was vastly different
Dentistry - existed but in lower numbers
Teachers - existed
Chef - existed but in lower numbers, mostly for the rich, our restaurant culture had not yet evolved
Judges/Jurors - existed but juror not a profession
Trial lawyers - existed

The history of humanity so far is we get richer, smarter, healthier and right now we are at the peak of a game that began tens of thousands of years ago. There is no reason this trend should stop. In fact it's accelerating, with billions of people suddenly turning productive.

No need to fear. The jobs are going to be plentiful, and they are going to ROCK. And we will probably work 4 hours a day, if the last 100 years tell us anything about the next 100.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Back to video... the top 100 most iconic movie scenes... don't worry it only takes four and a half minutes.

[Gravdigr]

I'd agree with most of that...

...except maybe for musicians. A good deal of those are somewhat automated already.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Like that horse analogy that they used in the video... the horses aren't all dead, it's just that now we ride them for fun instead of work. On beaches and dude ranches and camps for children. You can easily rent half a dozen ponies for a child's birthday party.

First world problem... equine pets are very expensive, and most people can't keep them at home, yet there are plenty of horses. So someone has disposable income, or they're spending the kid's college money in grade school.

I don't care how good the machines get, we are a long, long way off from artificially-generated live-action films.

You don't feel Pixar's films have been worthy. I picture an A level arch-criminal sitting at a console with Tony's wall of optical goodness, and one of those big old studio mics, dictating the plot to the computers, which are generating the movie on the fly.

Teachers (professors may go, but studies have shown again and again that screens are useful but fundamentally cannot compete with human interaction for young children.)

Since when does what's best for Sam and Susie enter into equipment/staffing/budget decisions? After the pool of right-out-of-school-will-work-cheap dries up They'll give the machines another gander. At first they will be there to assist the teacher, like just another piece of AV equipment, but soon the robots will be such a big help, the teacher can handle two classrooms. Then Koch brothers proclaim the robots are people and get two votes each. Maybe my imagination is too far in the future... but


Aside ~ This pdf breaks down the horse population by everything from what states have the most horses/race horses, to h\oaw many are pregnant.

[Clodfobble]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

You don't feel Pixar's films have been worthy. I picture an A level arch-criminal sitting at a console with Tony's wall of optical goodness, and one of those big old studio mics, dictating the plot to the computers, which are generating the movie on the fly.

Oh, absolutely. But look at the credits for rendered films, there are three times as many creative types working on them, maybe more. The secret to those films is that no one person comes up with all the stuff that makes them great. Even successful sitcoms and dramas require entire teams of writers. And more than that, the storyline, the jokes, the character design, everything is going to be dependent on current culture in order to strike a chord with audiences, which computers will never be able to keep up with. A computer might figure out that a puffy blue bear captures kids' eye contact more than a skinny red bear, but it will never understand why making it dance the Macarena is hilarious, but the Charleston falls flat. Or why that maybe reverses in another 50 years when no one remembers the ironic club dance, but ironic swing dancing is making another comeback.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

Oh, absolutely. But look at the credits for rendered films, there are three times as many creative types working on them, maybe more. The secret to those films is that no one person comes up with all the stuff that makes them great.

Yes, they're labor intensive at the moment. Each person or group working on such a little portion of the film means they pour their creative juices into the details to amuse themselves, and the people they work with. The Disney animators did the same thing for the same reason when it was all rendered by hand.

How ever the key is "at the moment". When we try to look down the road at how things will be, we're making assumptions about how robots(technology) will advance. That's why I picture one dude/dudette, sitting at a mic dictating the story line to a completely automated production robot(s).

But once again...

Maybe my imagination is too far in the future... but

[busterb]

IM. I did some temp work for Man power years ago while going to electronic school. I did a few jobs for one company and then bypassed man power and contracted the work.
I think that was for Stein mart, setting up new stores.

[Clodfobble]

Dude, what? They include a shot from Jurassic Park, but it wasn't this one?



That's some bullshit, right there.

[Gravdigr]

Objects in mirror are closer than they appear.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Claims he's Asian Vitruvian Man, but I think he's the son of Kung Fu.

[chrisinhouston]

Fascinating featurette on how the best ballet shoes are made. I had no idea how much work went into making them and how they still use a very old hand made process that many shoe and boot makers used until modern techniques came to be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKBTtVTT3qA#t=1409

[BigV]

I was wondering how he'd keep his fingers from being scissored off. Very beautiful, very balletic performance.

[chrisinhouston]

Yes and he slices away material with the razor so fast. I also wondered how he pounds that hammer to shape the toe but doesn't mar the finish on the satin material.