Obama: "I'm ready to negotiate with you, Iran." Iran: "Fuck you."

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

They're probably rational enough to do that, but not rational enough to avoid having their second or third weapon fall off a truck in the neighborhood of a non-state actor.

I'm curious where that assumption comes from?

First, both Pakistan and NK are not going to give non-state actors nuclear technology so that quickly limits down the possibilities of where that nuke came from.

Second, which non-state actor would nuke Israel? Hamas? Hezbollah? The West Bank is around 20 miles away from Tel Aviv and Lebanon is maybe 50. If Israel goes, Lebanon, West Bank, and Gaza get radiation poisoning. Hamas wants to destroy the Israeli state, not the land. Hezbollah controls the southern Lebanon. Their problems would exponentially multiply if a nuke went off in Israel.


Honestly, I have great doubts that Iran as a whole will do anything that stupid. They want to become a regional power and are paranoid of being attacked, therefore a nuclear bomb is the perfect solution. What worries me is the chance that some rogue Revolutionary Guard soldier gets control of the bomb.

[infinite monkey]

What is this, the Warm War?

Gee, I'd just come to terms with the cold one.

[Happy Monkey]

I worded it too strongly. The "probably" should only apply to the first bit, and a "possibly" should be added to the second. I generally agree with your analysis.

But I think the theocratic side of Iran's government is stronger than in the other countries, and a True Believer can easily throw rationalism to the wind.

[Undertoad]

toss this into your analysis hats

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9010175602

Wife of Assassinated Scientist: Annihilation of Israel "Mostafa's Ultimate Goal"

The wife of Martyr Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan Behdast, who was assassinated by Mossad agents in Tehran in January, reiterated on Tuesday that her husband sought the annihilation of the Zionist regime wholeheartedly.

"Mostafa's ultimate goal was the annihilation of Israel," Fatemeh Bolouri Kashani told FNA on Tuesday.

[piercehawkeye45]

Apparently Iran is using other proxies besides Hamas to launch rocket attacks on Israel.

Israeli jets pounded the Gaza Strip on March 12 in the latest volley of fire since violence broke out late last week. But they were not fighting Hamas, Israel's traditional bête noire in Gaza. Though radical factions have now fired more than 200 rockets into Israel, the self-described Islamic Resistance Movement has yet to claim responsibility for a single attack. It may be the first time the organization has refused to lead the charge to battle against Israel.

Hamas has a different fight on its hands. Iran, through the use of its proxies, is fomenting instability in Gaza that it is ill-equipped to handle. Indeed, Tehran is punishing Gaza's de facto rulers for leaving their long-standing alliance.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._gaza?page=0,0