The Cellar  

Go Back   The Cellar > Main > Health

Health Keeping your body well enough to support your head

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-17-2020, 12:19 PM   #241
henry quirk
maskless: yesterday, today, tomorrow
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Griff View Post
I understand the reflexive anti-expert instinct, I'm a generalist myself. I'll build a house, raise some animals, or tend a garden but for something like this I want credentials.
I'm not anti-expert, I'm anti-panic.
__________________
like the other guy sez: 'not really back, blah-blah-blah...'
henry quirk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 01:18 PM   #242
Undertoad
Radical Centrist
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cottage of Prussia
Posts: 31,405
Anti-panic stats scientist weighs in

Quote:
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.
...
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. ... Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
Undertoad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 01:42 PM   #243
Happy Monkey
I think this line's mostly filler.
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: DC
Posts: 13,570
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.
__________________
_________________
|...............| We live in the nick of times.
| Len 17, Wid 3 |
|_______________| [pics]
Happy Monkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 02:01 PM   #244
henry quirk
maskless: yesterday, today, tomorrow
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,161
Here ya go, Griff...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Undertoad View Post
...a credentialed SOB
__________________
like the other guy sez: 'not really back, blah-blah-blah...'
henry quirk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 02:04 PM   #245
henry quirk
maskless: yesterday, today, tomorrow
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Monkey View Post
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.
Examples, please.
__________________
like the other guy sez: 'not really back, blah-blah-blah...'
henry quirk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 02:23 PM   #246
monster
I hear them call the tide
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Perpetual Chaos
Posts: 30,811
I'm concerned about the UK isolating the over 70s. I feel -in addition to all the obvious things- they might be vulnerable to tricksters coming to their door masked, pretending to be offering aid.... :/
__________________
The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity Amelia Earhart
monster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 02:31 PM   #247
Griff
still says videotape
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Posts: 26,813
Quote:
Originally Posted by Undertoad View Post
This whole article bears reading and yes he has appropriate credentials. We need prevalence data to do this thing right.
__________________
If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you.
- Louis D. Brandeis
Griff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 05:35 PM   #248
henry quirk
maskless: yesterday, today, tomorrow
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Griff View Post
This whole article bears reading and yes he has appropriate credentials. We need prevalence data to do this thing right.
I agree, it's a useful piece, but not cuz it comes from an expert. It's useful cuz, like the piece I linked, it's chockablock with common sense, a commodity that's becomin' quite rare in the public sphere.
__________________
like the other guy sez: 'not really back, blah-blah-blah...'
henry quirk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 08:55 PM   #249
Griff
still says videotape
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Posts: 26,813
March 17th: Why do people distrust experts?

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510053/on-point

Tom Nichols talking about science experts making fewer mistakes than neophytes and getting corrected by their peers when wrong... among other things.
__________________
If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you.
- Louis D. Brandeis
Griff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 09:26 PM   #250
henry quirk
maskless: yesterday, today, tomorrow
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Griff View Post
March 17th: Why do people distrust experts?

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510053/on-point

Tom Nichols talking about science experts making fewer mistakes than neophytes and getting corrected by their peers when wrong... among other things.
March 17th: Why do some people mistrust their own common sense?

March 17th: Why do some people believe that not auto-deferring to experts is synonymous with being anti-expert?

March 17th: Why are some good people douchebags?

Let's see national progressive radio tackle those.
__________________
like the other guy sez: 'not really back, blah-blah-blah...'
henry quirk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2020, 11:48 PM   #251
xoxoxoBruce
The future is unwritten
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 71,105
If they said a meteor shower was coming where they actually hit the ground, but there's only less than 1% chance of being hit, I'd still take cover rather than ignore it.
__________________
The descent of man ~ Nixon, Friedman, Reagan, Trump.
xoxoxoBruce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2020, 06:49 AM   #252
Griff
still says videotape
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Posts: 26,813
Quote:
Originally Posted by henry quirk View Post
March 17th: Why do some people mistrust their own common sense?
Because it is limited by our personal experience and the narratives we run in our own heads to try to make sense of the world.

Quote:
March 17th: Why do some people believe that not auto-deferring to experts is synonymous with being anti-expert?
Because sometimes delaying action kills people in the real world. We have to use the best information and judgement we can lay our hands on in those moments. It could be wrong but we attempted to use reason not rhetoric which is generally better.

Quote:
March 17th: Why are some good people douchebags?
Because people are fallible and honestly don't know what is happening in others' heads.
__________________
If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you.
- Louis D. Brandeis
Griff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2020, 09:10 AM   #253
henry quirk
maskless: yesterday, today, tomorrow
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,161
Quote:
Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce View Post
If they said a meteor shower was coming where they actually hit the ground, but there's only less than 1% chance of being hit, I'd still take cover rather than ignore it.
Have I suggested anyone ignore anything?
__________________
like the other guy sez: 'not really back, blah-blah-blah...'
henry quirk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2020, 09:13 AM   #254
tw
Read? I only know how to write.
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 11,933
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Monkey View Post
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.
We know that something like 60 to 70% of the population probably must suffer infection before this pandemic subsides. So how long should schools remain closed?

CDC had been advising all national school supervisors about every other day based upon the best known science. Latest science suggests that schools may need be closed anywhere from 5 weeks to well into the summer.

Then suddenly, the White House ordered CDC to stop briefing the nation's school supervisors. Facts necessary to make an informed decision are too alarming. White House refuses to admit why they ordered such briefing terminated. Exactly what one does to create panic.

85% of all problems are directly traceable to top management. Since the president is clearly incompetent, then people who are been taking actions and implementing standards (therefore are averting panic) are governors and large city mayors. That is where and why panic has been averted. Fortunately they have addressed this problem. An incompetent and corrupt president also never once ran a successful company. 85% of all problems directly traceable to one who only makes decisions based upon his reelection.

Yesterday, in a news briefing, reporters noted a sharp change in this president. He was subdued and not bombastic. Resulting in an interesting change in the tone of reporters questions. It was more like a press conference conducted by previous presidents. The Don did very little talking. Others (educated and more responsible) did most of the talking. So facts instead of attacks were more in evidence.

Apparently this president, who was denying this pandemic until recently, is finally hearing even what his extremist staff has been saying. And who has almost nothing to say? Man that Trump assigned the job to - VP Pence. Which is good. He has nothing informed to offer. Best thing he can do to avert panic is to say nothing.

So the question. Who in the White House ordered the CDC silent? When we most need to know facts.

How long does this virus last on surfaces? Are infected people immune from a future infection? How long is someone contagious before symptoms appear? Does this virus spread airborne? How many are contagious without any symptoms (which means different tests to determine anti-bodies)? Is there a second strain of Covid-19 as indicated by some who reportedly got this virus again?

Two week quarantines were never to stop this pandemic. Since America did virtually nothing for two months, then these quarantines are necessary so that test kits, protective gear, and plans can be made. For example, we know two big manufacturers of face masks did nothing to increase production until after even the stock market was crashing. Only then did they have a response from government that this infection would be addressed. Because Trump said there were only five infections. And he expected that number to drop to one next week.

Of course he lied. He can't stop himself. Knowing his long history may have also averted panic. Educated people simply assume anything he says is probably a lie.

Korea defined a death rate of 3.6%. Koreans addressed this problem up front. Having performed a quarter of a million tests. Statistics there should be more accurate. Especially since Korea (per capita) did 700% more than America has. (Both countries observed similar infection rates at the same time.)

China says a death rate in Wuhan was, at one point, as high as 20%. But a death rate in the rest of Hubei province remained below 5%. Death rates among passengers on the Grand Princess are useless. Since that ship was kept out of San Francisco until test kits were delivered. How many kits? They could only find 45 kits to test about 4200 passengers and crew. Numbers were subjected to White House approval.

Only thing that is averting panic is latest information - not suppressed and subverted by a president who has lied every day of his adult life.
tw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2020, 09:21 AM   #255
henry quirk
maskless: yesterday, today, tomorrow
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,161
we attempted to use reason

Don't attempt: do.

This is all I'm suggesting, to much resistance and mischaracterization, here and elsewhere.
__________________
like the other guy sez: 'not really back, blah-blah-blah...'

Last edited by henry quirk; 03-18-2020 at 10:33 AM.
henry quirk is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:15 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.