A Rural Area with Moderate Politics

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COVID infection rates seem poised to only climb and climb

Naw

When examining the numbers for the states, please use https://rt.live/ . For individual states the "Adjusted Positive Tests & Implied Infections" curve at the bottom. That shows what is actually happening.

The majority of states now have a decreasing infection rate...!

A wild number of variables at play here, but seasonality is going to remain a big one, as all the southern states rose at the same time (and now the western European states are having their second wave at the height of their summers) (and now Minnesota)

Meanwhile, NYC is at least 25% immune and went over an enormous mountain to get there, but has not seen a second wave. It's figured maybe this is enough herd immunity to keep it at bay, at the current level of restricted social distancing.