Apocalypse never

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

:| It is a statement about human behavior, not actually a logic or math problem to be solved.

But if it were reworded to apply to anything other than extinction of humanity, it wouldn't have such a spotless track record (and would require actual research to come up with the number).

There's also a human tendency to ignore or discount warnings.

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

But if it were reworded to apply to anything other than extinction of humanity, it wouldn't have such a spotless track record (and would require actual research to come up with the number).

:eyeroll:

Alrighty then.

The statement is 100% accurate to complete extinction;

And yet, that doesn't stop the many predictions of complete extinction;

Which, obviously, gives us a perspective on predictions that only apply to a smaller number of humans, or a smaller region of the world; those predictions are perhaps only almost entirely wrong but that can't be mathematically proven.

There's also a human tendency to ignore or discount warnings.

:eyeroll:

Yes, whole point of the thread: it's a good idea to do exactly that, for all 100% apocalyptic warnings, and most of the rest as well.

Y2K: it wasn't necessarily going to kill ALL of us, capisce?

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Y2K: it wasn't necessarily going to kill ALL of us, capisce?

Was the lesson you took from Y2K that all of the work that was done to prepare for it by upgrading out-of-date software, and testing important systems, was wasted?

Or that institutions would have spent the money to do all that naturally, even if they hadn't been warned?

[xoxoxoBruce]

Well here we go, 780,000 years ago the earths magnetic field switched poles. 40,000 years ago it tried but snapped back. Meh, so the Boy Scouts will turn their compasses around, no big deal, right?

The Earth’s magnetic field protects our planet from dangerous solar and cosmic rays, like a giant shield. As the poles switch places (or try to), that shield is weakened; scientists estimate that it could waste away to as little as a tenth of its usual force. The shield could be compromised for centuries while the poles move, allowing malevolent radiation closer to the surface of the planet for that whole time.

Oh, that sucks.

Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, Boulder, one of the world’s experts on how cosmic radiation affects the Earth, fears that parts of the planet will become uninhabitable during a reversal.

I wonder if that includes sexobon's spot?

The vast cyber-electric cocoon that has become the central processing system of modern civilization is in grave danger. Solar energetic particles can rip through the sensitive miniature electronics of the growing number of satellites circling the Earth, badly damaging them. The satellite timing systems that govern electric grids would be likely to fail. The grid’s transformers could be torched en masse. Because grids are so tightly coupled with each other, failure would race across the globe, causing a domino run of blackouts that could last for decades.

Oh no, watching netflix by candle light.

No lights. No computers. No cellphones. Even flushing a toilet or filling a car’s gas tank would be impossible. And that’s just for starters.

The ultraviolet inhibitors in you window caulking don't stand a chance.

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

institutions would have spent the money to do all that naturally, even if they hadn't been warned?

They were doing that all along. No additional "warning" needed. And then this industry issue turned into a widespread panic that it was pretty likely major systems would collapse.

Did I tell the story before: mom had a party that night. I told her, why not play a joke. Have someone slip away one minute before midnight, and at then end of the countdown, have them hit all the breaker switches.

It worked as a joke, because everyone considered it plausible.

Major media gave us to-do preparation lists and quotes from politicians saying it could be trouble.

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

They were doing that all along. No additional "warning" needed.

I am not confident that that is true, to say the least. There were large scale Y2K efforts in the industry in the very late 90s, which should have been long over if they had been doing it all along. Many critical infrastructure systems are very old legacy systems, which are expensive to change - including pulling people out of retirement. I do not trust that an engineer predicting a potential issue would have had as many expensive updates like that funded as did the general alarm raised.

The majority of the advice given to the general public was similar to that given for a potential blizzard - a couple days' food and water in case of power or other infrastructure interruption. It was covered more breathlessly because computers are more exotic than weather, but the actual advice given was usually appropriate.

I did test my personal computer in late 1999 (I forget if it was win95 or 98, in either case it was the latest patch set) by setting the date to a minute before Y2k, and it crashed when the time came, even though the Y2K fixes were distributed by Microsoft in December 1998.

If that could happen, it is not unreasonable to prepare for the possibility that it could have happened to a computer that was doing something important.