How long does the US have?

[Cicero]

We are going to stay here alright....we are just going to mutate into mexico. I'm not saying that to be inflammatory...it's just true.

[Sundae]

I haven't clicked
It will take longer than 50 years but of course it will happen.

[lookout123]

i'm thinking the 16-30 range. gives us a couple more elections to completely screw up with successively lower turnout. a couple more recessions and on real big one tipping over when people realize that real estate is a comodity and the baby boom generation is fading out and we have way more supply than demand. a couple more military actions with dubious outcomes creating more passively minded skeptics until very few believe anything is worth fighting for.

[Griff]

Originally Posted by lookout123

i'm thinking the 16-30 range. gives us a couple more elections to completely screw up with successively lower turnout. a couple more recessions and on real big one tipping over when people realize that real estate is a comodity and the baby boom generation is fading out and we have way more supply than demand. a couple more military actions with dubious outcomes creating more passively minded skeptics until very few believe anything is worth fighting for.

I like my financial planners a little more pollyana-ish.

I went with 50. There will be many many years of denial, but all empires contract. Its the nature of the beast. We could string it out longer if we had a few Presidents with less vision but we don't like small people in charge.

[lookout123]

i can refer you to plenty. i hope for the happy version but plan for the rough side. overseas investments are wise for a number of reasons. so is stockpiling a heavy arsenal at home.

[piercehawkeye45]

I believe we are passed its peak or in it right now but I don't think we will decline much, we will be a top contender for a while.

When we do decline, we will probably be something like Britain or France is now so its not like we are we are going to full out collapse like Rome.

[lookout123]

i'd rather collapse completely than live in a nation that doesn't understand it it past it. a la france.

[Aliantha]

you could imigrate to Australia then lookout. We're on the rise here don't you know?

[SteveDallas]

Originally Posted by lookout123

2) A religious/ethnic fanatic run government

. . . .

we'll never have an ethnic or religious identity that ties us all together again. Those days are gone and won't be back.

But we don't have to have that to get to the situation you describe... we just have to have it in the government. And a fanatic-run government is not impossible.

Originally Posted by lookout123

a couple more recessions and on real big one tipping over when people realize that real estate is a comodity and the baby boom generation is fading out and we have way more supply than demand

You really think that will be enough to keep the housing market down permanently? I wonder. First, there are too many in the industry who benefit from higher prices. (Realtors, mortgage bankers, insurance agencies, etc.) Second, people want to buy more expensive houses... it's economic code for moving up. House A isn't more expensive than house B because it's a better-built house or it's on more land (though it may be)... it's generally more expensive because richer people live in the house A neighborhood. The schools are always better in the richer neighborhood. (Always? Really? Well, that's the perception... and this is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy no matter which direction it's going. Perception is almost more than reality in this case.)

Originally Posted by lookout123

a couple more military actions with dubious outcomes creating more passively minded skeptics until very few believe anything is worth fighting for.

You might be surprised who will fight, if the country is directly threatened a la WWII.

Originally Posted by Griff

I like my financial planners a little more pollyana-ish.

"Yeah, Griff, it's just a blip . . . The Dow's gonna hit 17,000 by the end of 2009. Yeah, telecoms... you definitely want to be in the telecom companies. That dark fiber's going to turn out valuable yet."

Oh, wait, you said a little, not a lot.

[Clodfobble]

I said 30-50, and I'm actually more on the 50 end of that range, because things always take more time than people think. Regardless, though, I agree with pierce--we're not going to implode, we'll just fade into obsolescence for awhile. Maybe we'll even have a comeback sometime even farther down the line. Standards of living will be reined in a bit (remember the days when families spent a long time actually saving up for a car because no one but no one would issue a car loan for more than three years?), but most people's daily lives will be relatively unaffected.

[SteveDallas]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

Maybe we'll even have a comeback sometime even farther down the line.

Maybe I've read too much Heinlein... but some days I'm convinced that the best chance of this would be the installation of a totalitarian government. The necessity to wake up and kick its ass would remind us why the USA is here in the first place and then we'd be good for another couple hundred years.

[ZenGum]

We should distinguish between relative decline and absolute decline.
Relative decline considers the USA's position relative to other countries. In this measure I think most people would agree that the US is in relative decline, if only because of the extreme growth that China is going through. The US getting tangled up in foreign wars speeds the process.

For the US to decline in absolute terms would be to decay in terms of morale and national self-belief, which is where Rome first turned rotten. Lookout talks about the sort of things that cause this: (apparently) pointless wars, (perceived) social injustice, apathy.

My assessment: the US is at present the preeminent nation but China is rapidly overhauling them. In 20 or 30 years China will have more strength, but perceptions of US strength will continue beyond this - especially in the US. I doubt that the US will ever fall to the state where Spain is now - truly a bit-player. More like (sorry Lookout) France or Britain are today - still having some international credibility, but not dominating as now.

Say ... we're all watching China - has anyone been keeping an eye on India? They've got a billion people, the bomb, and a growing economy too. They may end up being the second player/balance to China.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Does the central government of India have the where-with-all, to control the mounting strife that overpopulation causes, between the castes?

[Aliantha]

I don't think India has the technological or industrial base to be the next world power. I certainly think they're worth keeping an eye on though. They are a real concern.

[Clodfobble]

I honestly don't think India or China currently has the cultural base to be a true leader. They are both powerhouses of industrious and qualified manpower, for sure, but they don't value innovation enough yet. China's getting there, but it'll be awhile yet.