Bird Flu Risks Internationally?

Sundae · 10-03-2005, 06:29 AM

I work for the NHS (National Health Service - UK). We don't have any insider information, but it has been a common subject of conversation at work recently.

The general consensus here is that there are too many "ifs" for us to be concerned. In order for there to be a pandemic, the virus has to mutate and become capable of passing from human to human. Even SARS - which DID pass from human to human killed approx 800 people worldwide. If I went trawling for statistics I'm sure I could find a similar mortality rate for road traffic accidents within a reasonably small area.

I do appreciate that governments and health authorities need to be prepared. Models showing impact on critical care in the UK have shown that current resources would be overwhlemed. I think its important that the NHS is aware of that, and devise an action plan that could withstand a worst case scenario. However I think it is also important to remember that the model assumed an 8 week pandemic affecting 1 in 4 people in the UK.

My gut feeling is that this pandemic will not come to pass, at least not to the degree that is being anticipated (I wonder if I can get odds on that at the bookies?)

However I am intrigued by the idea of preparing a survival kit. Am tempted to get in water, tins and over the counter medicines just so I know that whether its flu, flood or zombie attack I can hole up and survive. At least I know I'll be okay if the power goes off - scented candles work just as well to read by, right?

10-03-2005, 06:29 AM	#7
Sundae polaroid of perfection Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 24,185	I work for the NHS (National Health Service - UK). We don't have any insider information, but it has been a common subject of conversation at work recently. The general consensus here is that there are too many "ifs" for us to be concerned. In order for there to be a pandemic, the virus has to mutate and become capable of passing from human to human. Even SARS - which DID pass from human to human killed approx 800 people worldwide. If I went trawling for statistics I'm sure I could find a similar mortality rate for road traffic accidents within a reasonably small area. I do appreciate that governments and health authorities need to be prepared. Models showing impact on critical care in the UK have shown that current resources would be overwhlemed. I think its important that the NHS is aware of that, and devise an action plan that could withstand a worst case scenario. However I think it is also important to remember that the model assumed an 8 week pandemic affecting 1 in 4 people in the UK. My gut feeling is that this pandemic will not come to pass, at least not to the degree that is being anticipated (I wonder if I can get odds on that at the bookies?) However I am intrigued by the idea of preparing a survival kit. Am tempted to get in water, tins and over the counter medicines just so I know that whether its flu, flood or zombie attack I can hole up and survive. At least I know I'll be okay if the power goes off - scented candles work just as well to read by, right?

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