The Crash of the American Economy

[Undertoad]

Oh, and one more economic indicator that's fun to track. Jacquelita's brother is a UPS driver. They were utterly swamped over this Christmas season, way above and beyond previous Christmasses. He worked long hours and drove routes he normally doesn't drive and such. That's all raw economic activity happening, more stuff being bought and shipped and probably a very healthy internet economy too.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Oh, and one more economic indicator that's fun to track. Jacquelita's brother is a UPS driver. They were utterly swamped over this Christmas season, way above and beyond previous Christmasses. He worked long hours and drove routes he normally doesn't drive and such. That's all raw economic activity happening, more stuff being bought and shipped and probably a very healthy internet economy too.

Yeah, but the brick and mortar stores were emptier than in previous years, so it's just a shift in where people are buying stuff, not a reflection on how much they are buying.

Well, here's my own very small economic indicator. I sell flowers on every major holiday. The flower selling biz is a pretty competive one in my town, and there's a big outfit called, surprising enough, THE Flower Company, which stakes out all the good spots. Then there's a few independents like me. I've found a pretty good spot - a major crossroads area south of town where people of every economic stratum find it necessary to pass by if they are trying to get from point a to points, b, c, d, e and beyond. The weather here Christmas weekend was mild and sunny - perfect flower selling weather, yet I'd say my sales were down by a third over previous years. And I had my dog out there with me.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by marichiko

Well, here's my own very small economic indicator. I sell flowers on every major holiday.

Another litmus test, although a strange one: One of the media outlets mentioned some years ago that the purchase of pets were a very good economic indicator of consumer confidence. In the mid 90s, major cities saw an explosion of "dog bakeries". These niche shops baked cookies, pastries, and cakes that were exclusively for man's best friend. Once the downtown hit, nearly all of them evaporated.

These days, they're starting to return. And when people start buying 16oz of filtered water in a disposable bowl for their dog, I suppose the outlook must be pretty damn good.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Thanks, Kitsune. That's wonderful.

[wolf]

Originally Posted by marichiko

yet I'd say my sales were down by a third over previous years. And I had my dog out there with me.

You obviously didn't look pitiful enough.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Oh, and one more economic indicator that's fun to track. Jacquelita's brother is a UPS driver. They were utterly swamped over this Christmas season, way above and beyond previous Christmasses.

I asked for numbers from some UPSes drivers. For example, one noted he makes about 175 stops per day. During a previous Christmas, his highest stops was 371. Two weeks before Christmas, he was already doing over 400 stops every day.

Meanwhile, traditional stores were seeing poor sales after an initial Thanksgiving week boom. However sales in the last week started to recover. I still don't see any final numbers from the traditional 'brick and mortar' stores yet. But numbers from both UPS and Fed Ex AND numbers from some UPS drivers suggest Internet sales were quite successful this year. Amazon.com is rumored to have done quite well.

This was a surprise to many economists who are worried about how 'tapped out' consumers are. It suggests consumer debt load, that has been unusually high, will even be higher. Previously posted is how credit card companies are now mining for higher profits. Get you in on real low interest rates. Then suddenly jack those rates up from 8% to 20 or 30%. Credit card companies are also said to be doing quite well with so many leaving unpaid debt every month on those cards.

The amount of government and consumer debt is worrying economists.