HN51 aware?

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Cyclefrance

The chance that the virus will mutate to become airborne between humans is a relatively big jump, as is the option that it mutates into something extremely fatal as opposed to having its potency alternatively reduced and becoming an extension of an existing flu virus, maybe more virulent but not as fatal as it otherwise could be.

True on both counts, but having its potency reduced isn't necessarily a good thing. Right now, something like 50-75% of the people infected can expect to die a fairly rapid death. But at least they if they die quickly, they won't go on to infect others. If the potency drops down to something like 5%, which is what the Spanish Flu was, then you can expect those 95% who don't die to walk around infecting others. The percentage of those who die of the infection may be lower, but the total number of dead can be much much higher.

Also, the chance that the virus will mutate so it can spread between humans is a huge jump, as you said. But the real danger isn't that it will happen once the birds in the West get infected. Here in the West, we keep our poultry in barns and can isolate them pretty easily. In Asia, the poultry is kept outside a lot more. And there are millions of domestic fowl in Asia. You can think of each one as a petrie dish, where an experimental strain improvement program is going on. If it mutates in Asia, it will spread from human to human like wildfire. No part of the world will be safe.

It really doesn't look too good.

I spend a fair bit of of time wondering if I should stock up on food. I figure I'd need about 2-4 months worth. That's a lot of food. And it ain't cheap. If I go that route, then I have to consider how much I'd be willing to defend that food in a real crisis, and do I plan for that by going out and getting a gun today? It would make sense to. I just really don't want to start down that path. I'm not the loony survivalist type.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by glatt

I spend a fair bit of of time wondering if I should stock up on food. I figure I'd need about 2-4 months worth. That's a lot of food. And it ain't cheap. If I go that route, then I have to consider how much I'd be willing to defend that food in a real crisis, and do I plan for that by going out and getting a gun today? It would make sense to. I just really don't want to start down that path. I'm not the loony survivalist type.

That's a bit much. Even the people that survived the pandemic of 1918 didn't survive because they holed up with a gun and food for months. Just wash your hands, man, and no more stealing that random kid's candy unless they haven't shoved it in their mouth, yet.

Originally Posted by glatt

You can think of each one as a petrie dish, where an experimental strain improvement program is going on.

Or, in layman's terms: "chicken = daycare center"

[xoxoxoBruce]

and no more stealing that random kid's candy unless they haven't shoved it in their mouth, yet.

The 10 second rule is repealed.

[Cyclefrance]

Originally Posted by glatt

...Here in the West, we keep our poultry in barns and can isolate them pretty easily....

If it's the same in the USA as here in the UK, then there are many individuals around who keep chickens, ducks and geese in very small numbers and these tend to roam outside. It's knowing that the message and instructions to isolate such collections, keeping them under cover, could fail to be acknowledged or heard that presents the achilles heel here.

Most UK commercial poultry farmers have too much to lose to ignore government instructions and recommendations - in fact those that normally would have to protect their organic and free range status by allowing their birds to roam have already been given dispensation to keep them under cover without affecting this status - a safeguard to address this otherwise high-risk categorisation requirement.

[Griff]

Originally Posted by Cyclefrance

If it's the same in the USA as here in the UK, then there are many individuals around who keep chickens, ducks and geese in very small numbers and these tend to roam outside. It's knowing that the message and instructions to isolate such collections, keeping them under cover, could fail to be acknowledged or heard that presents the achilles heel here.

It's the same. I've got a flock of chickens here doing the free range thing. I'll have to off the whole bunch if things get ugly. This is that weird case where the pathetic chickens stuffed in little cages with their beaks ground is healthier than running around in the grass. We've never had migratory fowl in close proximity so we're probably cool but I'm going to stay educated on it. We already do the barn boots don't leave the farm thing...