Betting tips

[lookout123]

That's one way of looking at it, and it certainly makes the most sense from the avenue you approach the sport - wagers. League play wouldn't have the big exciting playoff - the championship game so it would seem less important. But here is the thing - UEFA cups are just that - CUPS. There is a very large dose of luck of the draw thrown in. A team can potentially make it to the final having not played any of the "great" teams. At the same time a great team may be knocked out early on by simply having a bad night. Teams often play different tactics in the tournament because of that risk. It is overly defensive and often fails to produce exciting games. But it is a glamour event and gets a lot of attention.

League play is about quality and consistency. Each team plays every other team twice - home and away. Those that play the best throughout the season rise to the top. There is no chance of a lucky or unlucky draw deciding the title holder. Inevitably a couple of teams of the highest quality end up battling it out over the last few weeks.

Anyway, rankings can be misleading - afterall the US national team rose something like 20 places a couple of years ago without even playing a game during that timeframe.

This is why we have so many favorites loosing to small teams, especialy when the CL is coming down to its end.

This phenomenon makes perfect sense when you realize that the big teams are expected to produce silverware every year. When they get towards the end of the campaign they have to prioritize. Liverpool for instance is never in the running for the League, so they rest players during league games and pin ALL their hopes for glory on the CL.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by lookout123

Teams often play different tactics in the tournament because of that risk. It is overly defensive and often fails to produce exciting games. But it is a glamour event and gets a lot of attention.

On the internet, and in life, I find few who truly examine this sport properly.
This game is about defence.
If you find the Italian style (Italy, AC Milan) of play boring, well you wll be disapointed, because, those are the teams that hold the titles at this time, and those are the teams to beat, as they are the best.
Its their defence that makes them the best.
This sport has changed.
S.american footbal has died, as did the nations who represent that continent.
Europe is where footbal lives, as leagues and nations.

League play is about quality and consistency. Each team plays every other team twice - home and away. Those that play the best throughout the season rise to the top. There is no chance of a lucky or unlucky draw deciding the title holder. Inevitably a couple of teams of the highest quality end up battling it out over the last few weeks.

What I am saying, is that the elite teams in european leagues, are not interested in the title, allowing a smaller team to win it.

In Italy, rarely does the best team, win the campionato.
They really do have their priorities straight in Italy, but then again, politics is involved.
In England, the same thing.
Very rarely do we see the #1 ranked team in England, win he Premiership. Again, its about having priorities straight.
Arsenal would be the only elite team in England who see things differently... of course, we can blame Wenger.
In Greece, lol, Olympiakos wins the league every year, however,its Panathinaikos that has done wonders in Europe.
Reaching CL Semi's and Q-Finals while the greek champion have a 6-23 goal differential in Europe.

This phenomenon makes perfect sense when you realize that the big teams are expected to produce silverware every year. When they get towards the end of the campaign they have to prioritize. Liverpool for instance is never in the running for the League, so they rest players during league games and pin ALL their hopes for glory on the CL.

Reality check!
The success of finishing in the top 4 in England is obtaining a ticket to the Champions league.
1st 2nd 3rd and 4th place, are pretty much the same thing.
Believe me, Franchises do not depend on Winning leagues for the prize money... thats pocket change.
Liverpool have their priorities 100% on the champions league.

Let me give it to you this way.
If Liverpool had Wenger, they would have won all 75% of Premier league titles, yet, they would have not made it to any CL final.

Understand the money aspect of a franchise.
Most money is generated by being on late CL stages.
This exposure and success raises the value of all players involved.
This kind of economical gain outweighs by far any economical success of winning the premier league.

[W.HI.P]

Premier League(England) / Serie A(Italy) / Primera Division(Spain)

This is the point in time where one can start making money on European Soccer.
The Champions league is coming down to its end.
Teams involved in the competition, when competing in their own leagues usually concentrate on staying healthy, and taking it easy.
A win is not a must.
So I'll bring forth teams who have proven throughout history that they have their priorities straight.

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West Ham vs Chelsea

Draw = 3.20
West Ham win = 4.33

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Roma vs Parma

Draw = 3.30
Parma Win = 5.50

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AC Milan vs Lazio

Draw = 3.00
Lazio Win = 4.20

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Napoli vs Inter Milan

Draw = 3.00
Napoli Win = 4.00

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Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla

Draw = 3.10
Deportivo Win = 2.87

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Rec Huelva vs Real Madrid

Draw = 3.25
Huelva Win = 3.80

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[lookout123]

Chelsea has little chance and Milan has no chance of taking their leagues so their hopes are all pinned on the CL. Milan plays arsenal 72 hours later so I expect they will rest their top players. Good calls there.

Inter and Real Madrid can't afford to slip up in their leagues so the game will still be a priority for them, I'd expect them to pull out a result. They'll each rest key players but they'll still have enough in them I think.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by lookout123

Inter and Real Madrid can't afford to slip up in their leagues so the game will still be a priority for them, I'd expect them to pull out a result. They'll each rest key players but they'll still have enough in them I think.

I recall Real Madrid in this exact predicament a few years back.
Real Madrid lost 0-2 at home against Valladolid, proving that they had absolutely no interest in anything but the Champions league.

Inter Milan is part of the Campionato.
The Italian teams priorities are being governed by people on a political level.
A very proud people those Italians are.
All that aside... Inter is under no threat.
A draw seems as likely as any other in this particular game in Naples

[W.HI.P]

I went 50% with the AC Milan's tie, Inter Milan loss and Sevilla's Loss.
Here are the results from domestic leagues of the 16 teams competing in the Champions league:

Napoli 1 - 0 Inter Milan
AS Roma 4 - 0 Parma
AC Milan 1 - 1 Lazio
Atletico Madrid 4 - 2 Barcelona
Deportivo La Coruna 2 - 1 Sevilla
Recreativo Huelva 2 - 3 Real Madrid
Lille 0 - 1 Lyon
Schalke 0 - 1 Bayern Munich
Bolton W. 1 - 3 Liverpool
West Ham U. 0 - 4 Chelsea
Arsenal 1 - 1 Aston Villa
Fulham 0 - 3 Manchester U.
Celtic 2 - 1 Inverness C.T.
Boavista 0 - 0 FC Porto
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 1 Asteras Tripolis
Ankaragucu 0 - 0 Fenerbahce

7 wins out of 16 games from the elite of Europe is the result of teams looking at the Champions league.
IMO, the teams in red or orange, are the teams that have their priorities straight this week.

[W.HI.P]

UEFA Champions League

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AC Milan vs Arsenal

I've already talked about this match-up in this thread.
The Italians will progress.
The only scenario with that happening other than an AC Milan is a 0-0 draw. A result that is very common in Milan's history.

Bet on the AC Milan Win = 2.15
Back it up with a small wager on the score ending 0-0 = 6.50

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Sevilla vs Fernebarche

Perfect scenario after the 1st matchup, a simple 1-0 win for the Spanish will do.

Bet on Sevilla = 1.40

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Chelsea vs Olympiacos

I've been having an argument all week about this one.
Its a joke in my eyes.

Bet on Chelsea = 1.28

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Man Utd vs Lyonnais

This is a long shot as Utd have the advantage in England.
I can't look past the price in this one.

Bet on the draw = 4.50
Bet on the Lyonnais win = 9.00

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Real Madrid vs Roma

I like Roma to go through against Real Madrid.
But I especially like the prices on the Italians

Bet on the draw = 4.50
Bet on the Roma win = 9.00

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