November scenarios

[TheMercenary]

I think it is less important who McCain chooses than who Obama chooses. A strong crossover VP for Obama will give him a good chance of winning if McCain does not choose Huckabee.

[glatt]

I think Obama should not choose Clinton as a running mate because she is very polarizing.

If he does not choose her, either she will back him or she won't. If she backs him, then he can count on the votes of most of her supporters. If she doesn't back him, then some of her supporters will stay home out of spite, but many will vote for Obama because he is closer to their ideal than McCain is. The feminists who supported Clinton are not going to want another conservative president appointing judges to the Supreme Court. They will vote for the lesser evil.

Obama should instead choose a candidate that is less polarizing, and is closer to the middle. I'm thinking Webb. Webb is strong on military and guns and used to be a Republican. He's the closest thing to a moderate that the Democrats have.

The thing about going to the middle, is that there are more voters in the middle than on the edges. Obama needs to go to the middle with the VP.

[flaja]

Originally Posted by glatt

I think Obama should not choose Clinton as a running mate because she is very polarizing.

If he does not choose her, either she will back him or she won't. If she backs him, then he can count on the votes of most of her supporters. If she doesn't back him, then some of her supporters will stay home out of spite, but many will vote for Obama because he is closer to their ideal than McCain is. The feminists who supported Clinton are not going to want another conservative president appointing judges to the Supreme Court. They will vote for the lesser evil.

Obama should instead choose a candidate that is less polarizing, and is closer to the middle. I'm thinking Webb. Webb is strong on military and guns and used to be a Republican. He's the closest thing to a moderate that the Democrats have.

If Obama puts Webb on the Democrat ticket, would Republicans, who don’t like McCain, vote for McCain anyway just to protest Webb’s party-hopping? Would anti-military, anti-gun Democrats vote 3rd party or stay home to protest Webb?

The thing about going to the middle, is that there are more voters in the middle than on the edges. Obama needs to go to the middle with the VP.

Not true.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...cially_liberal

As of November, 2007:

24% of Americans are fiscal and social conservatives.


17% of Americans are fiscal and social moderates.

14% are fiscal moderates and social liberals.
9% are fiscal and social liberals.

11% are fiscal moderates and social conservatives.
10% are fiscal conservatives and social liberals.


6% are fiscal conservatives and social liberals.

On fiscal and economic issues alone 43% of Americans are moderate while an almost equal number (41%) are conservative.

On social issues alone 30% of Americans are moderate and 30% are liberal while a greater number (37%) are conservative.

It is a myth that a majority of Americans are moderates. Fiscal-social conservatives make up the single largest component of American society. And 45% of Americans are conservative in some form or another, while only 42% are some form of moderate.

[flaja]

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

I think it is less important who McCain chooses than who Obama chooses. A strong crossover VP for Obama will give him a good chance of winning if McCain does not choose Huckabee.

Who would Obama’s options be for gaining crossover votes? Could Obama put any kind of moderate on the Democrat ticket without alienating liberals?