Betting tips

[W.HI.P]

beyond the picks, spreads and long term bets, the greatest value that this thread holds, is the teaching of how to wager.
the majority of people, continue to wager in a way that is in the benefit of those collecting the wagers.

the fact is, you're going to lose games, its innevitable.
most people make a wager where 100 percent of the games wagered have to come through to collect money.
that kind of betting benefits the house.
defencive gambling is where 5/8 makes you a profit.
thats 3 games lost not 1.... so you see, gambling wisely, is about calculating innevitability.
wise gambling is also about not getting hurt.
a rule i set up for this kind of thing, is gambling the maximum of 10 percent of your spare cash... you'll never have a problem if you follow this rule.
people who gamble also have a tendency of lying to themselves.
to break this habbit, one must keep track of his net.
your net is calculated by the overall money won, minus the money wagered.
focus on the anual net, be aware of whats going on and correct things as you see them.
aside from long term bets, which should be the main focus of anyones pocket, not only from an economical point of view, but also in a sense of entertainment.
think about it.... wagering $500 on bordeaux winning the frech soccer league at 8/1 at the start of the year provides a whole season of entertainment as $4.000 are on the line in what looks like a 2 horse race with lyonnais.
winning that $4.000 would also provide you 8 years of wagering $500 on who will win the french league.
thats 9 years of entertainment and you're actually getting paid for it.
the heavy duty wagers though, should be on the free money games.
games where the money outweighs the sport.
if you go deep into your pockets for these bets, you're home free.
all bets through-out the years are all covered by these winnings.

[W.HI.P]

N.H.L

EASTERN CONFERENCE

This is the weaker of the two conference's.


BOSTON BRUINS

Quite possibly, the greatest team in the NHL at this time.
only the San Jose Sharks would be favorite against them in the stanley cup final.

WASHINGTON CAPITOLS

this team is easily the #2 ranked team in the east.
Green works well with the russian trio.
this team can score.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS

This season will depend on Brodeur.
if he's 100% come play-off time, the devils will contend.
Otherwise, the team is simply too weak to compete.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Exciting the way this team plays at times.
overall, they are under par, but they could progress past the first round of the play-offs, as they will most likely face a weaker team.

NEW YORK RANGERS

This team is not quite in the play-offs yet.
Lundqvist is elite, and is the reason why this poor rangers team is amongst contenders.

MONTREAL CANADIENS

If they manage to be in a position to face the devils in the first round of the play-offs, they'll progress for sure.
schneider was a great addition for this canadiens team, as he will anchor their power-play beside markov.

there is a certain amount of weight on this canadiens jersey, as these players represent the greatest franchise this game has ever seen, and ever will see, for a long time to come.

FLORIDA PANTHERS

Anderson is a great goalie, but he's not really seeing much ice time because Vokoun is playing at a very high level.
These Panthers play like a team and are very balanced.
based on the fact that the eastern conference is so weak, should they manage to avoid the bruins and capitols, they will cause an upset or two.
This team is too good to miss the play-offs

BUFFALO SABRES

Does it really make a difference wether or not this team makes the play-offs?
Overall, this is a mediocre team

CAROLINA HURRICANES

This is a very weak team, i doubt they'll make the play-offs.
should they make the play-offs, they can be calculated as a free ticket for whatever team they play against.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

I hope they don't make the play-offs.
Gonchar and Whitney are both back in the line-up.
I will seriously fear this team if they make the play-offs.

OTTAWA SENATORS

This team was in a position to get a very good draft pick.
Why on earth did they start winning?

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

This team is finally going in the right direction... out with the old, in with the new.
How great this blue line will look with Hedman beside Schenn should they manage to get him in the draft.
That should be the main objective at this time.
this team HAS to lose.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTENING

Hedman should be Tampa Bay's main objective as well.
He is the piece that is missing from this lightening team.
expect the lightening to almost lose out the season to get him.

ATLANTA THRASHERS

You would figure that the Thrashers would be after Tavares to play beside Kovalchuk.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS

This team will not remain in mediocrity for too many years.
if they go #1, its hard to determine wether they'd take Tavares or Hedman, as they lack in both positions.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

There are a lot of good teams in this conference.
Play-off calibure teams will not be in the play-offs here.

SAN JOSE SHARKS

This is the team that I called, the best team in the NHL at the start of the season.
They have not disapointed.
The conference is tough though.

DETROIT RED WINGS

The Wings look like they've gotten over some issues that they had earlier in the season.
I must stress that their defence is not as solid as it has been over the past few years.
Hasek is no longer playing for this team.
Detroit does remain elite

CALGARY FLAMES

Despite having very impressive players in their line-up, remaing lines remain weak.

CHICAGO BLACK HAWKS

This looks like a dynasty in the making.
Move aside detroit, the central now has a new owner.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS

I can't agree with the way this team is being run.
Sure, their moves have made this team stronger for this year, but it will cost in the years to come.
This team does not have the stamina to go far into the play-offs.
they still have not secured their spot

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

I wonder wether they'll bring up Filatov for the play-offs[i hope so]
Mason has left us all in awe.
well-rounded team, tough conference.

DALLAS STARS

I don't buy it.
Turco has been far under par these past two years.
Modano's 70th birthday is coming up.
Richards was a great addition, but he's now hurt.

EDMONTON OILERS

Suprise suprise, here they are again.... no Pronger, but still.
their off-season Acquisitions were key in their success.
this team should make the play-offs.

ANAHEIM DUCKS

It looks Grim for the Ducks as far as making the play-offs are concerned.
Should they some-how make the play-offs, they are clearly capable of beating the best of them, so watch out.
A new era starts in Anaheim, they should be concentrating on the drafts in the next 4 years, so don't expect them to be a factor come next season.

MINNESOTA WILD

Gaborik is the anchor of this team.
Without him around, the team should concentrate on their future.

LOS ANGELOS KINGS

I never thought that Kopitar would ever live up to his very expensive contract.... but here is, suprising me.
This team is in the hunt for a play-offs spot.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS

One of the weakest teams in the game.
They should have lost more games than they did.
the problem in this draft is that the elite players are few.
Nashville is in a position where they will just miss out on the key drafts. Who knows, maybe they'll get lucky.

ST.LOUIS BLUES

If this team was healthy this year, I would suspect that they'd finish around 5th place in this conference.
That was not the case, as 25 million dollars worth of contracts remained on injured reserve.
Watch out for this team next year.

PHOINEX COYOTES

I have never agreed with Wayne as a coach.
The team is better now, than it ever has been.
They are a heavy underdog at making the play-offs, but they're not out yet.

COLORADO AVALANCHE

This team can score, but it takes more than that to compete in the NHL, this team does not have it.
At this moment in time, this team is playing worst hockey out there.
The future's not so bright either.

[W.HI.P]

World Baseball Classic

dominican republic = 3.25

the domenican republic is clearly the elite of baseball.
although the usa would seem to be their greatest opponent, do not underestimate some of the other nations.
at 3.25, the dominican republic is a gift, bet on it.

[W.HI.P]

mlb

american league

east

here we have a division with 3 of the absolute greatest teams in baseball, and two of the absolute worst ones.

tampa bay has not only caught up to the yankees and bosox, but it seems like they have surpassed them.
these young players will only get better each year that passes.
the rays set the perfect example of a great team, finishing in last place in order to get even better the next year.
we can now look at the bottom of the table and distinguish the difference between a team finishing in last place cause they suck, and a team finishing in last place because they're elite, and want to get even better.

the yankees have responded to that reality by upgrading their pitching staff so that it is now elite.
their bats are top of the line.
the only weak link in the yankees appear to be their bullpen.

now matter how much i'd like to bash the red-sox, i can't really do that as they are not too far behind these two giants.
boston pitching staff is not bad all the way through.
their bullpen is very impressive.
its their line-up that places them behind these other two great teams, and 3rd place in the division seems unavoidable.

the orioles and blue jays are in a whole different category.
what can they do really but rebuild and hope that they can compete sometime in the next decade.

central

this division has gotten weaker.
i bet you, if you take last years standings and turn it upside down, you'll pretty much have the final standings of this season.

wtf are they doing in chicago?
who will be their number 4 and 5 pitchers?
their line-up is as weak as its been for a long time.
the only thing improved here is their bullpen.
the white sox are not going anywhere this year.

i can respect the twins in some of their most recent choices.
they know how to run a pitching staff.. its not that bad.
their amazing in recent years bullpen has fallen apart.
their line-up, despite having a few absolute elite players, is under par.
this division is weak, so i won't be suprised if any team takes it.
its just that the twins seem to be a 500 team.

the indians can be com-petitive this year.
their pitching staff is clearly the elite in this division.
their bullpen remains as questionable as it always has been.
the line-up is full of questions and does have some holes in it, so i can't put my faith in this team as of now.

the royals are finally a competitive team.
due to the rest of the teams in this division generally looking weaker, the royals actually have a shot at winning this division.

the detroit tigers despite finishing in last place last season should be considered the favorites here.
line-up, pitching staff and bullpen, overall are superior to the rest of the teams here.

west

the gap between the angels and the rest of the teams in this division has closed a little bit.
seattle's amazing pitching staff can almost compare to the angels.
oaklands line-up has improved considerably since last season.
texas still has some holes to fill, and even if they fill them up, their pitching staff is very weak.
overall, its the angels division to lose.

national league

east

we can fight about this all you want, but the fact is, the mets are the best team here.
thier pitching staff and bullpen are in a standard of their own, while their line-up cannot be matched.
the phillies, despite having the greatest infield in baseball, have a weak bullpen.
florida remains a pretty good team with an above average bullpen.
the line-up does not impress leaving the marlins behind the two greater teams in this division.

this is a bounce back year for atlanta.
i like their pitching staff, and they've got the 8th and 9th inning pretty much covered.
its their line-up that is impressing me, they've made some key moves, they will score this year.

washington isn't all that bad, they've improved, and i believbe they'll cause a few upsets this year.

central

this division is going to be the main attraction this season as there are a few teams that have improved dramatically.

the chicago cubs appear to be world series bound as their team is too good.
the pitching staff could not be better than it is.
their bullpen is missing nothing, and their bats include soto, lee, soriano and ramirez.

the milwakee brewers are seriously on the downfall as they have become weaker, where the teams below them have surpassed them.
don't be betting on this team.

i like houston, i don't know when they'll be competitive again, it does not look good again this year.

chris carpenter is back to an overall mediocre cardinals team, who may just manage to compete a bit here.

the cincinatti reds are probably gonna be the most improved team in baseball.
volquez is of the absolute elite pitchers in the game.
arroyo and harang can both win.
cueto and bailey are up and coming.
they hold one of the absolute elite closers in the game f.cordero.
their bullpen can certainly pick them up with weathers picking up the 8th inning.
some would say that their bats aren't that good, but i can argue that by comparing it to the rest of teams in this division [minus the cubs]

there's nothing i can say about the pirates that can alter the opinion already bombarded by the media.
they're not that far off.

west

you can fight with me about this all you want, but the dodgers are gonna win this division.
arizona's line-up is not good enough.
those of you who will argue about the giants are crazy.
lincecum is great, but there's not much else there.
the padres amazing bullpen is not all that amazing anymore.

[W.HI.P]

ncaab

these are some of the teams i'm looking at, prior to the brackets being made.....

north carolina
hansbrough will shine in the nba despite what some people think.
the team this year is much better overall.

pittsburgh
i don't believe that they are the best school in the country as some are saying, however, they do hold advantages over most teams under the hoops.

michigan state
this team is for real.
the defence is there when it counts.
it'll take some edge that most teams don't have to take this team out.

gonzaga
i've never had a positive opinion about this team, but this year, they have taken that extra step that makes them at least, a competitive team.

villanova
possible high value here in this very competitve team.

wake forest
i am a fan of this team this year, but it will depend on who they have to face to see how far they can go.

[W.HI.P]

march madness

north carolina 3.50
pittsburgh 7.00
michigan state 26.00
gonzaga 31.00
villanova 35.00
wake forrest 51.00

some pretty good value here, avoiding some of the favorites ucon, louisville, duke, memphis and oklahoma.
michigan state looks like the greatest value there at 26/1 as they can beat any team when it counts.

[W.HI.P]

AL EAST

this is actually a very good bet based on reality.
it may seem weird betting on two contenders in a 5 horse race.
it is a sure bet as you can discount the orioles and blue jays as they are in a race of there own for last place.
the red sox are truly inferior to both of these teams.
5 units bet on the NYY at 2.10, and 2 units on the Rays at 5.00,
overall, the payout is 10-10.5 on 7 wagered
if you wish to pick 1 of the two bets, fine, but this is free money if you wager as i suggest.

Bet On the NY Yankees
Bet On the Tampa Bay Rays


AL CENTRAL

this division is pretty much up in the air.
detroit is a major contender at 4.00.

Bet On the Detroit Tigers

AL WEST

this is not about me being a fan of this team.
they still are superior to the rest of the teams here. 1.44

Bet On the LA Angels

NL EAST

pretty good price on the mets at 2.25.
lets make it back for last season.

Bet On the NY Mets

NLCENTRAL

the cubs pay 1.57, but the low price is justified as this team is way too good.
the reds could be the main contender for 2nd place therefore a very smal cover is affordable at 11.00.

Bet On the Chicago Cubs
Bet On the Cincinnati Reds

NL WEST

this is a very good bet as the dodgers pay 2.37.
i see the rockies as their main opponent this year, and they pay 8.50

Bet On the LA Dodgers