Gulf coast oil spill

[tw]

Originally Posted by gvidas

The actual rate of flow should be measured at that point. A lot of errors (both of management and design) could have been prevented if the volume and speed of oil had been known.

It always was known. But if you knew how large that flow is, you might get angry. It is called spin. The exact same technique used so that we "knew Saddam had WMDs."

A Navy skimmer has just arrived for Gulf duty. How many gallons does it skim before returning to port? 1200 gallon. How large is the flow out of that wellhead? About 1 to 3 million gallons per day. See why they fear you might see numbers?

Silly is to worry about a solution. In late August, the first relief well might intercept the leaking well. Might. At one miles below the surface and another 15,000 feet underground, it must hit a pipe that is maybe 4 inches in diameter. And hope the drill head does not break off. If the drill head breaks off, they must start all over again drilling another well. Until then, this oil will continue leaking. Live with reality. Flow will continue all summer. There is no other viable solution.

People who don't wait to be told are already asking who will be purchasing the remains of BP. It should be obvious. BP as a viable company is done. We got the government regulation they paid for. This is what you must now live with. Deal with that reality.

The numbers are known. Those numbers are well above the 5000 barrels per day that BP spin was preaching. If you think numbers are unknown, then BP spin has you right where they wanted you. Learn from history: Saddam’s WMDs. Use the exact same thinking process to see through the spin.


Zengum - the USSR used a tactical nuclear weapons on an Arctic Ocean oil well - back when nobody was looking. If was their last and only option. They got lucky. It worked.

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by tw

It always was known. But if you knew how large that flow is, you might get angry. It is called spin.

Also, the fine is based on flow.

[glatt]

I'm reading a book right now about setting prices and going through price negotiations, and the theories promoted in that book are being used in this situation where they are estimating oil flow from this leak. BP and others aren't trying to agree on a price like you would with a sale, but they are trying to arrive at a number. One of the main points of the book is the idea of an "anchor" number. Once one party sets an anchor, all number floated after that anchor tend to be pulled toward that anchor number.

BP threw a number out there early on that was very low. They won the race to set the anchor point. So now everyone who has seen or heard that number, whether they realize it or not, is thinking about that original (low) BP number. Any future numbers are going to be compared to the low number and even if they are actually accurate they will be viewed as being unreasonably high. The burden of proof will be on the new numbers coming out to prove that they aren't unreasonable.