Egypt and Arab States circle toilet bowl

[tw]

Sadat had foresight. He planned for his replacements. When he was assassinated, the replacements stepped right in.

Mubarak has no such plans. He apparently will do anything to stay in power as if (he apparently believes) that if good for Egypt. His health is said to be so bad that he has been staying in vacation towns outside Cairo trying to get healthy - for at least a year.

Worse, below Mubarak is a power vacuum. Therefore an outsider (ElBaradei, the Nobel prize winner) living in Vienna Austria and not from the Army may be an only viable replacement.

Since Nasser, every leader has come from the Army. There is, apparently, no one with sufficient 'leadership' from those ranks to replace Mubarak. That power vacuum is probably the most serious long term problem.

If these sparks ignite more tinder, then Saudi Arabia might be next. Even the Economist, like so many others, got it very wrong this time.

Many of the region’s countries look, on the surface, to be far more fragile than Tunisia, with equal volumes of anger and far deeper social woes. But different factors serve to bolster even unpopular governments. In Syria the ever-present danger of war with Israel mutes dissent. The Egyptian state, despite its appalling record in running other things, wields a large force of riot police that is well equipped, highly trained and very experienced, and so less likely to provoke outrage by excessive violence. Egypt also has a relatively free press. This not only gives healthy air to protest, but acts as the sort of early-warning system that Mr Ben Ali, due to his own repressive tactics, sorely lacked.

Even Kaddafi of Libya may be concerned. Two uprisings almost without any warning. Apparently every major world government never saw it coming.