Libya, Will Gaddafi prevail?

[tw]

Originally Posted by footfootfoot

For a moment I thought the rebels might have a shot at ousting Gaddafi, now I'm not so sure. I think they are well and truly hosed.

It would have been a miracle for the rebels to be successful without major parts of the army defecting. Posted previously was a very important point that all should have understood. The difference between Egypt and Libya. Egyptian army had been educated by or was informed of western principles that have been standard in the US since sometime well after 1920. Libyan army has been trained in the extremist rhetoric promoted by their 40 year glorious leader. They have no concept that an army serves it people. Under Kaddafi training, the people are something that must be kept caged like wild animals in the zoo. Libyans army is trained to think like a Medieval army that only serves it king.

Same is part of recent Latin American history. Only the army was 'smart enough' to know what is good for the people. Need we cite Chile, Argentina, or most of Central America as classic examples?

Without the army, that rebellion was at risk.

2) A guerilla war means people can hide. Ambush. Do what the American colonists did to the British Army. What Vietnamese did to the French. But Libyans have a geography that is ideal only for tanks and planes. The rebels have no such equipment.

3) Worse, rebel troops want to run to the fight like firemen did in the WTC. Like British rebels did to attack a massively smaller Roman Legion only to have maybe one million massacred. These rebel soldiers have no idea of discipline or strategy. Apparently have few if any leaders who can properly lead them.

4) Kaddafi's son is wise. He let the rebels extend themselves foolishly until ambushed just outside of Sirt. Surrounded and devastated the people of Missaru (just east of Tripoli). And literally took apart rebel cities in the west only when ready. These massacres may have been grizzly. He waited for his tanks and munitions to be ready. Used desert in a 'rope a dope' strategy.

5) No nation can move in until the most responsible neighbors decide what is best. Responsibility falls firstmost on Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Niger, Chad, and Sudan. If they do not call for international intervention, then nobody has any right to intervene. Even if it does become a bloodbath. Welcome to hard reality. Only other honest way for international intervention is a full approval by the UN Security Council or General Assembly. And that will not happen.

6) Damning weeks ago were conversations heard between rebel Generals and their political leaders for more supplies. Political leaders were so concerned about Kaddafi’s so successful propaganda as to not even beg for massive military aid. (ie a British diplomat and 8 SAS soldiers 'captured' and sent home because they would feed into Kaddafi’s propaganda). So they doomed themselves.

Conclusion: the only question is whether the rebels can last long enough to finally learn basic military concepts. Until they do, they will not succeed. And since the world so much needs Libyan oil (thank you Chevy and its crap Camaro as one example), welcome to a deal with the devil.