Oil Peak

[Troubleshooter]

Ok,

Current trends are already showing Malthus to be wrong, both in population growth and in food producution. Produce per acre is up and population growth is down. The only place population is a real problem is in undeveloped countries and that is a self-solving problem.

And to borrow a quote from myself from another post...

Here's an interesting article relating to scientific predictions about the future and how wrong that can be and how wrong the consistently are.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.reason.com/rb/rb020404.shtml

Ronald Bailey


I am testifying at an oversight hearing before the House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources on "The Impact of Science on Public Policy" today, Feb. 4, 2004. I was asked to submit testimony about how and why environmental predictions have gone wrong. What follows is the written version of my testimony. (I get a whole five minutes to speak.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Enjoy

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by Troubleshooter

Here's an interesting article relating to scientific predictions about the future and how wrong that can be and how wrong the consistently are.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.reason.com/rb/rb020404.shtml

Even the generally alarmist Worldwatch Institute acknowledged in its 2001 Vital Signs report: "Nonfuel commodities now fetch only 46 percent as much as in the mid-1970s." Indeed, Worldwatch admitted, "food and fertilizer prices are about one-fourth their 1974 peak." Even the price of crude oil, which has risen in the last couple of years, "nevertheless remains at about half the zenith it achieved in 1980." In fact, overall, nonfuel commodities cost only a third of what they did in 1900. As everyone knows, lower prices generally mean that things are becoming more abundant, not scarcer.

So everything was rosy in 2004. I'd like to see what he would tell them today.