Global warming?

[footfootfoot]

OK, fuck the cars, they're not important. what about this? What do you make of this? or are 54mpg cars a much easier sound bite to wrestle with?


Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

Three simple numbers that add up to global catastrophe - and that make clear who the real enemy is

by Bill McKibben


If the pictures of those towering wildfires in Colorado haven't convinced you, or the size of your AC bill this summer, here are some hard numbers about climate change: June broke or tied 3,215 high-temperature records across the United States. That followed the warmest May on record for the Northern Hemisphere – the 327th consecutive month in which the temperature of the entire globe exceeded the 20th-century average, the odds of which occurring by simple chance were 3.7 x 10-99, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe...

[glatt]

I didn't know this was the 327th consecutive month in which the temperature of the entire globe exceeded the 20th-century average, but I believe it. The planet is warming.

The odds of that happening by simple chance are not important. It's history. We know it happened. The odds, in hindsight, are 100%.

We've got global warming.

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by glatt

The odds of that happening by simple chance are not important. It's history. We know it happened. The odds, in hindsight, are 100%.

"By chance" is the operative word. If someone's playing craps, and they keep rolling 7s, there's a point where, while it is theoretically possible that it's just a lucky streak, you have to assume that it's a weighted set of dice.

The odds of the warming happening by chance are good for convincing the subset of deniers who (a) are convincable, and (b) haven't moved on to "OK it's happening, but it's a natural cycle" or "OK it's manmade, but warm weather will be lovely". So a very small set.

[Lamplighter]

June broke or tied 3,215 high-temperature records across the United States.

Isn't this jibber-jabber ? I think McKibben would know better.

If my yard temp breaks a record at 102 degrees, it's not surprising
when my neighbor's yard breaks a record at 102 degrees.
Likewise, for my neighbor across town, in then next town, in the next state, ...

Likewise for the AC bill, fires in Colorado, a hurricane next week in Louisiana, etc.

It takes something that is averaging the overall effects to mean anything,
such as long term measurements, the advance or retreat of glaciers,
invasions or losses of species of animals or plants in significant areas, etc.

Only the ilk of TV weathermen make claims about today's weather
having anything connected to the cause/effect of global warming.
That's just job security.

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by Lamplighter

Isn't this jibber-jabber ?

Incomplete science reporting, actually.

Every year, there are a certain number of record highs, and a certain number of record lows. That 3,215 number isn't useful unless compared to the number of record lows. I couldn't find that for June, but over the course of the year so far:

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, America has broken more than 40,000 high temperature records in comparison to fewer than 6,000 low temperature records. In total, 3,215 daily high temperature records were set in the month of June alone.

No individual weather event can be directly tied to global warming, but the aggregate can.