2009 Senate Elections

[richlevy]

I was doing a quick fact check for the sex scandal thread and I saw something interesting. It's something I sort of knew already, but seeing it in print made an impression.

12 Democrats and 21 Republicans are up for reelection in 2009. With Democrats already in a slim lead in the Senate, this means in order to retake the majority, Republicans have to hold all 21 seats and steal at least 1 from the Democrats.

Meanwhile, the White House has circled it's wagons and Bush, who is the titular head of the Republican party, seems to be providing them with the same leadership he has shown for most of his tenure as Commander-in-Chief, consisting mostly of denial and stubborn adherence to failed strategies. Also, with Democrats in the majority, the White House can no longer resort to questionable tactics and have to reluctantly reestablish the barriers mandated by the Hatch Act. In selecting Cheney as Vice President, a man who is clearly unable to run for President, Bush has also set up a power vacuum in the presidential elections unseen for decades. The resulting free-for-all cannot help but affect Senate elections.

At the same time, Republicans are still expected to maintain some measure of party discipline, limiting their ability to distance themselves from a failed administration. This once effective relationship has become politically gangrenous for most members seeking reelection in all but the most partisan districts.

All in all, the Reds have a good reason to be blue.

From Here

class - Article I, section 3 of the Constitution requires the Senate to be divided into three classes for purposes of elections. Senators are elected to six-year terms, and every two years the members of one class—approximately one-third of the Senators—face election or reelection. Terms for Senators in Class I expire in 2013, Class II in 2009, and Class III in 2011.

And Here

Class II - Senators Whose Terms of Service Expire in 2009
Senators in Class II were elected to office in the November 2002 general election. Their terms run from the beginning of the 108th Congress on January 3, 2003 to the end of the 110th Congress in January 2009.

Democrats

Baucus, Max (D-MT)
Biden, Joseph R., Jr. (D-DE)
Durbin, Richard (D-IL)
Harkin, Tom (D-IA)
Johnson, Tim (D-SD)
Kerry, John F. (D-MA)
Landrieu, Mary L. (D-LA)
Lautenberg, Frank R. (D-NJ)
Levin, Carl (D-MI)
Pryor, Mark L. (D-AR)
Reed, Jack (D-RI)
Rockefeller, John D., IV (D-WV)

Republicans
Alexander, Lamar (R-TN)
Allard, Wayne (R-CO)
Chambliss, Saxby (R-GA)
Cochran, Thad (R-MS)
Coleman, Norm (R-MN)
Collins, Susan M. (R-ME)
Cornyn, John (R-TX)
Craig, Larry E. (R-ID)
Dole, Elizabeth (R-NC)
Domenici, Pete V. (R-NM)
Enzi, Michael B. (R-WY)
Graham, Lindsey (R-SC)
Hagel, Chuck (R-NE)
Inhofe, James M. (R-OK)
McConnell, Mitch (R-KY)
Roberts, Pat (R-KS)
Sessions, Jeff (R-AL)
Smith, Gordon H. (R-OR)
Stevens, Ted (R-AK)
Sununu, John E. (R-NH)
Warner, John (R-VA)

[Undertoad]

What's more, more D seats are considered party-safe.

Democrats

Baucus, Max (D-MT) - safe
Biden, Joseph R., Jr. (D-DE) - mostly safe
Durbin, Richard (D-IL) - safe
Harkin, Tom (D-IA) - safe
Johnson, Tim (D-SD) - health problems, may retire
Kerry, John F. (D-MA) - Somewhat low approval rating; would be replaced by another D regardless
Landrieu, Mary L. (D-LA) - unsafe due to Katrina
Lautenberg, Frank R. (D-NJ) - age 84 in 2008; low approval rating; moron; deserves to be replaced by the very smart Rob Andrews (D)
Levin, Carl (D-MI) - safe
Pryor, Mark L. (D-AR) - kind of unsafe
Reed, Jack (D-RI) - safe
Rockefeller, John D., IV (D-WV) - safe

Republicans
Alexander, Lamar (R-TN) - mostly safe
Allard, Wayne (R-CO) - open, Allard retiring
Chambliss, Saxby (R-GA) - safe
Cochran, Thad (R-MS) - safe
Coleman, Norm (R-MN) - sinking approval ratings; may face Al Franken
Collins, Susan M. (R-ME) - mostly safe
Cornyn, John (R-TX) - safe
Craig, Larry E. (R-ID) - may retire but state will vote R
Dole, Elizabeth (R-NC) - mostly safe
Domenici, Pete V. (R-NM) - safe
Enzi, Michael B. (R-WY) - safe
Graham, Lindsey (R-SC) - safe
Hagel, Chuck (R-NE) - may retire; sorta unsafe
Inhofe, James M. (R-OK) - safe
McConnell, Mitch (R-KY) - mostly safe
Roberts, Pat (R-KS) - safe
Sessions, Jeff (R-AL) - safe
Smith, Gordon H. (R-OR) - unsafe
Stevens, Ted (R-AK) - 85 in 2008; will probably run again and win anyway
Sununu, John E. (R-NH) - unsafe
Warner, John (R-VA) - mostly safe

[xoxoxoBruce]

Still a lot of time for the parties or individuals to piss off the voters. Mood can shift swiftly and the new president will have time to win or alienate the hearts and minds.

[richlevy]

You know, I had forgotten about Al Franken.

What's funny is that all of the actors and entertainers who became politicians that I can think of up until now have all been Republicans.

Ronald Reagan
Arnold Schwarzeneggar.
Fred Thompson
Fred Grandy (Gopher on the Love Boat)

As for Mary Landrieu, the real problem for her opponent would be the completely f***cked up job by the White House. The only way a Republican would win that seat is to seriously badmouth the administration.

[tw]

Originally Posted by richlevy

As for Mary Landrieu, the real problem for her opponent would be the completely f***cked up job by the White House. The only way a Republican would win that seat is to seriously badmouth the administration.

Same reasoning did not help the LA Governor. She is not running in a race that, if that logic applied, she should win easily. Polls suggest otherwise.

Once coattails had relevance. In the past 20 years, that has not been true. If you could say the entire Republican party screwed up, then that logic may be valid. However a president does not appear to have the same influence on other elections as was true 30 years ago.

Local opinions by a regional politician on an issue - ie "Mission Accomplished" - caused many states to vote out their "we want more war" representative. IOW I suggest it was not so much George Jr's opinion they were voting against. Many were voting against those who supported a "we want war" agenda or other issues such as corruption.

I don't think the LA election would be based on the administration’s incompetence during Katrina. Voting probably would be more about what "Mary Landrieu did for us" after Katrina. That would suggest why the Governor is not popular but why the Senator may be reelected.

[Undertoad]

The reason the seat is unsafe is because her voters have left.

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

The reason the seat is unsafe is because her voters have left.

So GWB knew what he was doing all along in screwing over the city and botching the reconstruction? I'd almost prefer that he be some kind of sick Machiavellian genius instead of just someone who got elected to a position way over his head.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by richlevy

You know, I had forgotten about Al Franken.

What's funny is that all of the actors and entertainers who became politicians that I can think of up until now have all been Republicans.

Ronald Reagan
Arnold Schwarzeneggar.
Fred Thompson
Fred Grandy (Gopher on the Love Boat)

Dude! Sonny Bono.

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

Dude! Sonny Bono.

Darn! I forgot about him. Another Republican. Can anyone name a former entertainer who became a Democratic member of Congress?

I will settle for Green Party, Independent, or Libertarian.

[Torrere]

Originally Posted by tw

Once coattails had relevance. In the past 20 years, that has not been true. If you could say the entire Republican party screwed up, then that logic may be valid. However a president does not appear to have the same influence on other elections as was true 30 years ago.

As I recall, both the Republican victory in 2002 and the Republican defeat in 2006 were attributed to George W. Bush's coattails.

[xoxoxoBruce]

How about John Glenn? Didn't he sit in a movie studio a act like he was going into space?








Just kidding...I'm sorry John.

[Ibram]

Originally Posted by richlevy

Darn! I forgot about him. Another Republican. Can anyone name a former entertainer who became a Democratic member of Congress?

I will settle for Green Party, Independent, or Libertarian.

Jello Biafra ran for (and came in second place for) the Green party presidential nomination in '04.

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by Torrere

As I recall, both the Republican victory in 2002 and the Republican defeat in 2006 were attributed to George W. Bush's coattails.

Worst case of buyer's remorse in US history.

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by Ibram

Jello Biafra ran for (and came in second place for) the Green party presidential nomination in '04.

And Pat Paulsen ran any number of times. I'm talking winners. Second place for the Green Party nomination. That would make him 249,223,123 in line for the throne.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by richlevy

Darn! I forgot about him. Another Republican. Can anyone name a former entertainer who became a Democratic member of Congress?

I will settle for Green Party, Independent, or Libertarian.

Ben Jones, who played Cooter in the Dukes of Hazzard TV show, is a Democrat who served for two terms in the House of Representatives.