Political Dominance

[classicman]

Rethinking the Notion of Political Dominance

In 2004, after President Bush won re-election with expanded Republican majorities in Congress, academics, journalists and party strategists wondered whether his blend of free-market economics, cultural conservatism and hawkishness on national security might create long-lasting Republican rule.

“Something fundamental and significant happened,” said Ken Mehlman, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee. On the eve of a second Bush term, he said, the Republican Party was “in a stronger position than at any time since the Great Depression.”

Today that Republican dream appears in shambles. The twin burdens of an economic crisis and an unpopular war have left Mr. Bush with, at 71 percent, the highest level of public disapproval for a president in the history of the Gallup Poll. Democrats see the chance on Nov. 4 to elect not just Senator Barack Obama but also House and Senate majorities large enough to enact his ambitious agenda.

A Changing Electorate

How did such a turnabout happen so fast?

In part, the answer stems from developments so rare that, as the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has said of the financial crisis, they occur “once in a century.” Hurricane Katrina shattered the administration’s reputation for competence in domestic affairs, just as problems in Iraq eroded its credibility on national security issues. Not even partisan critics of Republican policies anticipated how a burst housing bubble would devastate Wall Street and damage the entire economy.

But another part of the explanation may lie in an underappreciated reality of 21st-century politics. Despite the nation’s polarization along partisan and ideological lines, the number of swing voters remains large enough to rapidly undercut any Democratic or Republican coalition in reaction to shifting events.

“The map of 2004 was a delusion,” said Bernadette Budde, a political strategist for the Republican-friendly Business Industry Political Action Committee in Washington.

A new generation of voters, consuming political information in different ways than their forebears, is “very action-oriented, very issue-driven, very solutions-oriented,” Ms. Budde said. “It would be very foolhardy for either political party to think they could dominate the age politically.”

Indeed, young voters have moved toward the Democrats. Those under 30, after backing Senator John Kerry by nine percentage points over Mr. Bush in 2004, now favor Mr. Obama by a 36-point margin in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Yet their more tradition-minded elders have also moved that way, if in smaller numbers, reflecting the breadth of discontent with the country’s direction and Washington’s inability to act on persistent problems like health care and immigration policy. As long as these problems persist, any governing coalition remains at risk.

A little long, but a good, insightful read.

[glatt]

Any party that thinks it's hot shit will get its comeuppance. Hubris, plain and simple.

[Pie]

I am all for a mandated two (or more!) party government. They do the best when they do the least.

[Undertoad]

In my only middle-aged lifetime, I've seen both parties written off for dead several times.

[Shawnee123]

I like to post articles.

Normally, I don't get out front and center like this in the media, preferring instead to support my husband from the sidelines and let the pundits do the talking. But as Election Day draws ever nearer, I'd like to take this time to urge all of you to put "Country First" and cast your vote for my husband, John McCain! Because a vote for John McCain is not just a vote for experience, fortitude, and American values, it's also a vote for me, Cindy McCain, not tearing your ribcage open and spilling your steaming viscera into the street.

And that's something all Americans can agree on.

Let's take back Washington and make America great again! Barack Obama has never fought for this great country like John McCain has. That's a fact. So when you're in that election booth, ask yourself, do you want a president who believes in the strength of the American worker, or do you want me to rip off your limbs and use them to beat your skull to a bloody pile of skin and bone fragments? I think the choice is clear.

If you really think that a junior senator with no executive experience is the best person to lead us out of this economic crisis, then by all means vote for Obama. Just hope to God I never find out about it and, say, drive to your house in the dead of night, crawl through your bedroom window, and, in a calculated moment of seething rage, strangle you with my bare goddamn hands.

If you're really, really lucky, I'll just shoot you in the face.

That's an eye-opening article!

[Shawnee123]

To be fair to both sides, here's another article.

TALLAHASSEE, FL—In a campaign gaffe that could potentially jeopardize Sen. Barack Obama's White House bid, the Democratic presidential nominee told nearly 8,000 supporters Tuesday that, if elected, he would be a terrible president.

The blunder, captured by all major media outlets and broadcast live on CNN, occurred when the typically polished Obama fielded a question about his health care policy. Obama answered by saying he would give small business owners a tax credit to help them provide health care for their employees, and then added, "Now, I'm not completely certain that my plan would work because, overall, I think I would make a bad president."

According to sources, before those on hand could fully process what Obama had said, the Illinois senator continued to stumble, claiming that, were he to win the general election, he'd have absolutely no idea what to do.

"My youth and inexperience would definitely make me an awful president," said Obama, whose seven-minute misstep was further exacerbated when he called himself "no expert" on the economy. "To be perfectly honest, I'd be worried about putting me in charge of the most powerful military in the world because I'm not any good when it comes to making important decisions. Also, I'm not sure how much I care about keeping this great nation of ours safe."

Onions onions la la la, indeed!

[DanaC]

Also, I'm not sure how much I care about keeping this great nation of ours safe."

That put paid to my mouthful of hot tea :P