Islamists gain majority in Turkey election

[Nic Name]

Will the USA be bombing its ally, Turkey, by Thanksgiving?

The newly elected AK party is dogged by controversy. Its leader, Recep Tayyib Erdogan, is barred from becoming prime minister because of a 1998 conviction for Islamist sedition.

The party executive will meet on Tuesday to discuss whom it would put forward for prime minister.

In the meantime, it's unclear who will lead the nation. It's also unclear how the new government will lead the nation and whether Turkey will maintain its secular approach to Islamic leadership in the face of a war against Iraq.

Isn't the USA counting on using airbases in NATO ally, Turkey, to attack Iraq? Oops, NATO is a "defense" alliance.

[Griff]

Originally posted by Nic Name

In the meantime, it's unclear who will lead the nation. It's also unclear how the new government will lead the nation and whether Turkey will maintain its secular approach to Islamic leadership in the face of a war against Iraq.

Isn't the USA counting on using airbases in NATO ally, Turkey, to attack Iraq? Oops, NATO is a "defense" alliance.

The Turkish Army will continue to lead the nation. They've been resistant to Islamic fundamentalism thus far, but who can say for how long?

[Nic Name]

ditto the US government. The President's new primary role is Commander in Chief.

[elSicomoro]

From what I understand of Turkey, the Turkish army is incredibly endeared to the principles of Atatürk. Granted, the world in 2002 is a strange place, but I suspect the minute anything reeks of fundamental Islam in Turkey, the army will quickly squash it.

[hermit22]

I was actually in Turkey the week before the election, so (at the risk of sounding like I'm boasting) I can give what could be a kind of 'on the ground' interpretation. Of course, I was only there for a week, and I'm not an expert on Turkish politics, but I did spend a lot of time hanging out with IR students who were more than willing to share their views on regional politics.

This election is, more than anything else, a referendum on the outgoing party, who presided over the worst Turkish recession since World War II. To frame this in relative terms, the exchange rate was 1.64 million Turkish lira / dollar. AKP has gone out of its way to try to disassociate itself from its pro-Islamic roots, and there is a lot of empathy for the party's leader, who seems to be picked on by the establishment.

AKP has also made efforts to not piss off the army. They are fully aware of the coup the army staged 5 years ago to remove the last Islamic faction from office. AKP has also promised to fully comply with the EU's demands in order to be considered for membership. The people I talked to were scared of AKP, but they did believe that the party wouldn't dare to touch any of Attaturk's secular reforms. I got the sensation that AKP would at least make the appearance of pushing Turkey into the EU in the hope that those reforms would stimulate the economy.

The scary part, though, is that because of the nature of the Turkish parliamentary system, only 2 parties made it into parliament - and AKP got a 2/3 majority. This gives them a blank check in amending the Constitution however they see fit. And then, according to the people I talked to in Ankara, many of who were the children of soldiers, the army would step in quickly.