Nation Building 101

[tw]

The US will pull out of Iraq this June no matter what. Even more disturbing are the details. No one outside the administration even knows what those details might be.

We occupied Iraq with too few troops leaving acres of ammunition dumps even today unguarded. So few troops that nationwide looting and infrastructure destruction occured as Rumsfeld denied it was happening. US foolishly disbanned both Iraqi Police and Army - providing insurgents with even more and smarter recruits and allies. We treated Iraq (even keeping the UN out) as if Iraq were some kind of prize; rather than implement immediate political solutions. No after-action plan meant no political solutions. The administration's 'no plans' is why things got so bad after military actions ended and why so many Americans have since died or been permanently maimed.

To promote the George Jr political agenda (with elections upcoming), we will arbitrarily leave Iraq? As the Joint Chiefs said was necessary before the Iraq invasion even began - 200,000 troops for at least two years - minimum. Due to no 'after action' planning, that time period may now be 10 years - worst case. Iraqi civil war remains a possibility.

The worst case nightmare is if violence erupts in the Kurdish, northwest corner, or southern Iraq - all outside the Sunni triangle. That includes a region that Tobias last reported to be stationed. Latest news should make all worry:

from the NY Times of 4 Apr 2004
Supporters of an anti-U.S. Shiite Muslim cleric waged violent demonstrations in four Iraqi cities Sunday, punctuated by a gun battle at the Spanish garrison near this Shiite holy city that killed at least 20 people, including two coalition soldiers -- an American and a Salvadoran.
...
Protesters also clashed with Italian and British forces in other cities in a broad, violent challenge to the U.S.-led coalition, raising questions about its ability to stabilize Iraq ahead of a scheduled June 30 handover of power to Iraqis.
...
In the southern city of Nasiriyah, Italian troops traded fire with militiamen demonstrating against al-Yacoubi's detention, said Lt. Col. Pierluigi Monteduro, chief of staff of Italian troops in the region. One Italian officer was wounded in the leg.
...
At a checkpoint in Samarra, about 60 miles north of Baghdad, that was manned by Iraqi Civil Defense personnel, a bomb killed three security officers and wounded another, workers at Samarra General Hospital said.
In Kirkuk, also in the north, a car bomb exploded, killing three civilians and wounding two others, police said.

But Iraq is ready for self rule? What does that mean? Many in Washington are now asking that question since details should have long been planned and understood. Some insiders are saying the George Jr administration still may have no such plans - plans like those for the original occupation. Apparently we are going to leave power in the hands of choosen Iraqis and all will be well?

82nd Airborne choose to stay outside of Fallujah. Fallujah has long been independent of US military control because it was too violent even for the elite 82nd Airborne. Current violence in Fallujah is due, in part, because US Marines who replaced 82nd Airborne decided to take control of Fallujah. What does that say about Iraq once George Jr declares victory and pulls out all US troops? Either one must say George Jr is a very smart man with a secret plan to end the war .... or he is as bad a president. Both options described Richard Nixon.