Oil Peak

[tw]

Originally Posted by HungLikeJesus

With the dramatic increases in oil, gasoline, and (to a lesser extent) food prices since 2004, I wonder if any of the other participants in this thread have changed their views as expressed in those carefree days?

We went through these same 'feelings' in the 1970s. Back then America went from something like 25% oil imported to above 50%. The resulting recession made everyone so depressed. Then early 1980 oil prices dropped to the lowest in the history of mankind. Suddenly all that imported oil gets ignored, everything is better, and we ignore reality. Benchmark for stifled innovations are companies that most quashed innovation – ie GM. (So we foolishly blame the oil companies?)

At best of times, we never get below 50% imported oil. Worse, one of the world's largest producers of natural gas must now import natural gas. So again we have this recessionary attitude until all that bad news becomes acceptable ten years later. And then we again ignore the problem for another 30 years.

The problem could be avoided if we decided to address the problem. But we still burn 10 gallons of gasoline in cars and only productively use the energy from less than two gallons. Waste remains unchanged from 50 years ago. Do we decide to fix this? History says no as demonstrated by the so many who even denied the obvious - that global warming does exist.

The prediction was that domestic production would peak in the 1970s. It did. The prediction was that worldwide production would peak sometime about now. Same solutions to global warming, pollution, gas mileage standards, etc all require the same innovations. However our American attitude towards innovation was to burn more oil, pretend a problem did not exist, and even stifle research into technologies that will be needed maybe 30 years from now - ie quantum physics.

"That all costs money', the MBA complains. A problem does not exist because spread sheet do not measure that problem and cannot predict any solutions. Same problem in 1970s still exist. So we pretend problems don't exist as White House lawyers rewrite the science. Problems solved because we have a big military to protect OUR oil. Eventually this worsening problem will be acceptable so that we ignore it - a lesson from history.

It should have been routine for cars of current sizes to average above 30 MPG long ago. Then we would have technologies that others (ie China, India) need to buy. We did not develop those technologies in the 1980s by pretending those high tech industries are somehow smoke stack industries. So what do we have that they need? So what did we create to avert a same problem that has existed even in the 1970s? Instead, GM can sell SUVs with 1960 technology engines, with gasoline mileage lower than in the 1960s, put fancy painted steel around it, and calls that innovation.

Instead of innovating where the problem is (domestic automakers such as GM), the innovative companies (oil companies) will discover more oil. Then we will pretend that problem is solved. Deja vue from 30 years ago.